ADO Den Haag
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
ADO Den Haag32.8%fair odds 3.05
Draw26.2%fair odds 3.82
Groningen41.0%fair odds 2.44
Expected goals1.33 – 1.51total 2.84
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| ADO Den Haag ↓ · Groningen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are ADO Den Haag goals, columns Groningen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.09
- 1–28.9%11.28
- 0–18.2%12.18
- 2–17.8%12.83
- 1–07.1%14.00
- 0–26.7%14.99
- 0–06.5%15.46
- 2–25.9%16.98
- 2–05.2%19.38
- 1–34.5%22.41
Winning margin
5.2%
ADO Den Haag by 3+
fair 19.36
9.6%
ADO Den Haag by 2
fair 10.41
18.0%
ADO Den Haag by 1
fair 5.55
26.2%
Draw
fair 3.82
20.6%
Groningen by 1
fair 4.86
12.4%
Groningen by 2
fair 8.05
8.0%
Groningen by 3+
fair 12.52
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
ADO Den Haag goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Groningen goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 32.8% | 32.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 26.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Groningen win | 41.0% | 40.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 53.8% | +0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.9% | 57.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Expected goals ADO Den Haag | 1.33 | 1.33 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.51 | 1.50 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- ADO Den Haag win32.8%3.05
- Draw26.2%3.82
- Groningen win41.0%2.44
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or draw59.0%1.69
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or Groningen73.8%1.36
- Double chance Groningen or draw67.2%1.49
- Draw no bet ADO Den Haag44.5%2.25
- Draw no bet Groningen55.5%1.80
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.0%1.85
- Over 3.531.7%3.16
- Over 4.515.9%6.31
- Under 1.521.8%4.58
- Under 2.546.0%2.17
- Under 3.568.3%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes57.9%1.73
- No42.1%2.38
- Yes and over 2.545.6%2.19
- ADO Den Haag win and yes17.2%5.81
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Groningen win and yes21.0%4.77
Team goals
- ADO Den Haag over 0.573.5%1.36
- ADO Den Haag over 1.538.3%2.61
- ADO Den Haag over 2.515.0%6.68
- Groningen over 0.577.9%1.28
- Groningen over 1.544.6%2.24
- Groningen over 2.519.4%5.16
- ADO Den Haag clean sheet22.1%4.53
- Groningen clean sheet26.5%3.78
- ADO Den Haag win to nil15.6%6.41
- Groningen win to nil20.0%5.00
Handicap
- ADO Den Haag −1.514.8%6.77
- ADO Den Haag −2.55.2%19.36
- Groningen +1.585.2%1.17
- Groningen +2.594.8%1.05
- Groningen −1.520.4%4.90
- ADO Den Haag +1.579.6%1.26
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored14
Favourite won57.1%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.599
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.7% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 3 | 45.3% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 56.4% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 14 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 14 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.