AEK Athens FC vs Lask Linz – 8 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Tue, Sep 8 · 17:45 OPAP Arena, Athens

AEK Athens FC

1–0Full time

Lask Linz

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AEK Athens FC were slight favourites.

AEK Athens FC were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lask Linz. AEK Athens FC had 12.9 days of rest, Lask Linz 13.9 and had to travel 1,378 km.

Away travel1,378 kmRest days12.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

AEK Athens FC49%

Draw24%

Lask Linz27%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.22

AEK Athens FC52%

Draw24%

Lask Linz24%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.07

AEK Athens FC49%

Draw24%

Lask Linz27%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.22

AEK Athens FC41%

Draw25%

Lask Linz34%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.36

AEK Athens FC49%

Draw24%

Lask Linz28%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.24

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Athens)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 93

Team strength

AEK Athens FC

Lask Linz

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

53 Current StrengthIn forecast 37

50 AttackIn forecast 48

57 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AEK Athens FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lask Linz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AEK Athens FC

Lask Linz

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.86

70% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.50 ShotsContext 18.50

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

38% On target shareContext 34%

10.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.90

69% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 15%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.88

9.60 Shots allowedContext 9.00

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

2.13 BlocksContext 2.44

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.86

70% Save rateContext 59%

55% PossessionIn forecast 45%

436 PassesContext 370

375 Accurate passesContext 296

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.03

14.80 FoulsContext 11.30

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AEK Athens FC

Rest12.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lask Linz

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,378 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AEK Athens FC	Lask Linz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 26 Aug	13.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 25 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,378 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	36.1	36

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AEK Athens FC Confirmed XI

4-4-2

91A. Brignoli(G)

3S. Pilios 44Filipe Relvas 2H. Moukoudi 12L. Rota

11A. Koita 18R. Marin 27M. Vitális 14L. Majer

9L. Jović 19B. Varga

Lask Linz Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

1L. Jungwirth(G)

16A. Andrade 43Alemão 4X. Mbuyamba

6M. Bogarde

2G. Bello 30S. Horvath 10R. Ljubičić 20Kasper Jørgensen

27C. Lang 8M. Usor

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AEK Athens FC Absences are shown before kick-off

Lask Linz Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AEK Athens FC+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lask Linz+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

AEK Athens FC · Home No home games yet this season.

Lask Linz · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AEK Athens FC	Lask Linz	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.94
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	AEK Athens FC	Lask Linz	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.50
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	2.00	4.50	2.94
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AEK Athens FC	Lask Linz
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	AEK Athens FC	Lask Linz
Corners
Corners won	6.10	5.11
Corners conceded	2.40	5.11
Match total	8.50	10.22
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	2.20	1.30
Match total	4.20	2.70
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 93 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.83

Red cards0.20

Cards 5+56%

Fouls28.2

Penalties0.28

Home wins40%

AEK Athens FC1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W12 Mar 26A · Celje4–02

Lask Linz

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.