AEK Athens FC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AEK Athens FC48.7%fair odds 2.05
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.02
Lask Linz26.4%fair odds 3.78
Expected goals1.72 – 1.22total 2.94
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lask Linz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AEK Athens FC ↓ · Lask Linz → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AEK Athens FC goals, columns Lask Linz goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.57
- 2–19.6%10.47
- 1–08.5%11.74
- 2–07.8%12.75
- 1–26.7%14.83
- 0–05.9%17.04
- 0–15.8%17.11
- 2–25.8%17.20
- 3–15.5%18.23
- 3–04.5%22.19
Winning margin
11.6%
AEK Athens FC by 3+
fair 8.61
15.0%
AEK Athens FC by 2
fair 6.67
22.1%
AEK Athens FC by 1
fair 4.53
24.9%
Draw
fair 4.02
15.4%
Lask Linz by 1
fair 6.49
7.5%
Lask Linz by 2
fair 13.37
3.5%
Lask Linz by 3+
fair 28.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
AEK Athens FC goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
Lask Linz goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC win | 48.7% | 48.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 24.9% | -0.0 pp |
| Lask Linz win | 26.4% | 27.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 56.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.4% | 58.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Expected goals AEK Athens FC | 1.72 | 1.72 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Lask Linz | 1.22 | 1.24 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AEK Athens FC win48.7%2.05
- Draw24.9%4.02
- Lask Linz win26.4%3.78
- Double chance AEK Athens FC or draw73.6%1.36
- Double chance AEK Athens FC or Lask Linz75.1%1.33
- Double chance Lask Linz or draw51.3%1.95
- Draw no bet AEK Athens FC64.8%1.54
- Draw no bet Lask Linz35.2%2.84
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.3%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.95
- Over 4.517.5%5.72
- Under 1.520.2%4.94
- Under 2.543.7%2.29
- Under 3.566.0%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes58.4%1.71
- No41.6%2.41
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- AEK Athens FC win and yes24.9%4.01
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- Lask Linz win and yes14.5%6.92
Team goals
- AEK Athens FC over 0.582.2%1.22
- AEK Athens FC over 1.551.4%1.95
- AEK Athens FC over 2.524.9%4.02
- Lask Linz over 0.570.4%1.42
- Lask Linz over 1.534.4%2.91
- Lask Linz over 2.512.4%8.05
- AEK Athens FC clean sheet29.6%3.38
- Lask Linz clean sheet17.8%5.60
- AEK Athens FC win to nil23.7%4.21
- Lask Linz win to nil12.0%8.35
Handicap
- AEK Athens FC −1.526.6%3.76
- AEK Athens FC −2.511.6%8.61
- Lask Linz +1.573.4%1.36
- Lask Linz +2.588.4%1.13
- Lask Linz −1.511.0%9.07
- AEK Athens FC +1.589.0%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.