Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Ajax
3rd · 34 pts · 19 played
WWDWD
First leg1–1
2–0Full time
FC Volendam
15th · 17 pts · 19 played
LLLLW
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 13). Ajax had 7 days of rest, FC Volendam 6.1 and had to travel 18 km.
Away travel18 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Ajax74%
Draw17%
FC Volendam9%
Ajax73%
Draw18%
FC Volendam10%
Ajax74%
Draw17%
FC Volendam9%
Ajax67%
Draw20%
FC Volendam13%
Ajax72%
Draw18%
FC Volendam10%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 29
Team strength
AjaxFC Volendam
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
66
AttackIn forecast
14
55
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxFC Volendam
1.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.37
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.74
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
95%
Scored inContext
68%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
14.63
ShotsContext
9.84
6.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.42
43%
On target shareContext
35%
10.68
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
72%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.73
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.63
Shots allowedContext
17.95
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.22
BlocksContext
5.58
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.42
73%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
526
PassesContext
359
455
Accurate passesContext
289
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.42
FoulsContext
9.32
12.32
Fouls sufferedContext
11.58
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.32
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.80
ShotsContext
9.30
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
42%
On target shareContext
37%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
65%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.50
Shots allowedContext
19.00
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.89
BlocksContext
6.50
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
73%
Save rateContext
72%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
540
PassesContext
366
473
Accurate passesContext
298
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.00
FoulsContext
8.90
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km38 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel18 km53 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 18 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 38 km | 53 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
2Lucas Rosa
15Y. Baas
30A. Bouwman
3A. Gaaei
48Sean Steur
6Y. Regeer
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
43Rayane Bounida
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
23D. Kwakman
18N. Bukala
17J. Ideho
7O. Kökçü
11A. Oehlers
10B. Kuwas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- FC Volendam+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-2
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.90
FC Volendam · Away
0.22points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-7
- Scored
- 0.56
- Conceded
- 2.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Telstar | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Feyenoord | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 3–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Twente | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 3–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 33 of 54 · 1.83 per game | 16 of 54 · 0.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Ajax wins1 draws0 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025FC Volendam1–1Ajax
- 2 Nov 2023Ajax2–0FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.95 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.37 | 1.74 | |
| Match goals | 3.32 | 2.84 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 68% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 32% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Ajax | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.16 | 6.78 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 10.45 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 1.37 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.74 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.69 | 3.37 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 8/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Ajax | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 7.60 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 11.00 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.30 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.36
Red cards0.07league 0.21
Cards 5+31%league 31%
Fouls23.3league 21.6
Penalties0.17league 0.28
Home wins52%league 45%
Ajax2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Nov 25H · Heerenveen1–10
- W10 Aug 25H · Telstar2–00
FC Volendam1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Jan 24A · Heracles1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax19 games · scored 37 · conceded 26
6
4
0-15
4
4
16-30
9
5
31-45
9
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
FC Volendam19 games · scored 21 · conceded 33
2
7
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
4
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
