Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Ajax had 7.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 2.7 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days7.8 · 2.7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Ajax41%
Draw26%
Feyenoord33%
Ajax40%
Draw27%
Feyenoord33%
Ajax41%
Draw26%
Feyenoord33%
Ajax33%
Draw26%
Feyenoord41%
Ajax40%
Draw27%
Feyenoord33%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 84
Team strength
Ajax
Feyenoord
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
66
AttackIn forecast
76
55
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxFeyenoord
1.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.73
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
2.19
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
93%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.07
ShotsContext
18.47
5.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.13
42%
On target shareContext
39%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
72%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.93
Shots allowedContext
9.27
5.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
4.13
BlocksContext
2.57
3.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
73%
Save rateContext
69%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
530
PassesContext
441
459
Accurate passesContext
371
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.08
10.87
FoulsContext
9.40
12.87
Fouls sufferedContext
10.07
1.87
Yellow cardsContext
1.47
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.60
ShotsContext
17.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
41%
On target shareContext
36%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
66%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
1.14
OffsidesContext
1.57
16.30
Shots allowedContext
10.20
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.90
BlocksContext
2.50
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
68%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
496
PassesContext
441
426
Accurate passesContext
373
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.10
FoulsContext
10.70
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km334 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel57 km3,700 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 33 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 334 km | 3,700 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
5O. Wijndal
4K. Itakura
30A. Bouwman
2Lucas Rosa
48Sean Steur
6Y. Regeer
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
10O. Gloukh
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
2B. Nieuwkoop
40L. Valente
28O. Targhalline
8Q. Timber
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Feyenoord+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 0.88
Feyenoord · Away
2.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 2.86
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 3–3 A | W 4–0 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 H | W 6–1 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | W 7–0 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Telstar | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 23 of 42 · 1.64 per game | 34 of 42 · 2.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Ajax wins0 draws1 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 2 Feb 2025Ajax2–1Feyenoord
- 30 Oct 2024Feyenoord0–2Ajax
- 27 Sep 2023Ajax0–4Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.87 | 2.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.93 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 73% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 0% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Ajax | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 4.50 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.43 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.47 | 1.13 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 6/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 13% 2/15 | |
| Ajax | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 8.90 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.37
Red cards0.12league 0.22
Cards 5+43%league 33%
Fouls23.4league 21.9
Penalties0.32league 0.31
Home wins46%league 48%
Ajax9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W26 Oct 25A · Twente3–22
- D21 Sep 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–24
- L11 May 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–33
- W30 Mar 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–03
- W2 Mar 25A · Almere City FC1–00
Feyenoord8 with this referee
Record7-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W31 Aug 25A · Sparta Rotterdam4–02
- W16 Mar 25A · Twente6–23
- W8 Feb 25H · Sparta Rotterdam3–00
- L22 Dec 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–33
- W6 Oct 24H · Twente2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax15 games · scored 28 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
7
5
31-45
9
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Feyenoord15 games · scored 41 · conceded 18
3
2
0-15
8
2
16-30
9
1
31-45
10
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
7
7
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
8
5
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 23 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
10
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
