Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Ajax
4th · 39 pts · 22 played
WDWDD
First leg3–1
4–1Full time
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 26 pts · 22 played
DLWLD
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Ajax had 6.2 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 7 and had to travel 167 km.
Away travel167 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Ajax70%
Draw19%
Fortuna Sittard12%
Ajax66%
Draw21%
Fortuna Sittard14%
Ajax69%
Draw19%
Fortuna Sittard12%
Ajax62%
Draw22%
Fortuna Sittard16%
Ajax68%
Draw20%
Fortuna Sittard12%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 29
Team strength
AjaxFortuna Sittard
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
66
AttackIn forecast
19
55
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxFortuna Sittard
1.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
95%
Scored inContext
86%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.82
ShotsContext
12.73
6.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
42%
On target shareContext
35%
10.59
Shots in the boxContext
7.91
71%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.72
OffsidesContext
1.95
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.41
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.55
4.15
BlocksContext
4.05
3.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
72%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
527
PassesContext
363
455
Accurate passesContext
279
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.23
FoulsContext
13.23
12.18
Fouls sufferedContext
11.32
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.00
ShotsContext
13.40
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
41%
On target shareContext
36%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
64%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.78
12.30
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.00
BlocksContext
4.22
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
68%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
529
PassesContext
340
459
Accurate passesContext
258
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.50
FoulsContext
13.30
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km175 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel167 km321 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 167 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 175 km | 321 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
47O. Zinchenko
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
2Lucas Rosa
48Sean Steur
24J. Mokio
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
43Rayane Bounida
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
1L. Koopmans(G)
28J. Hubner
21N. Kasanwirjo
44Iván Márquez
12Ivo Pinto
20É. Michut
23P. Brittijn
70L. Duijvestijn
52M. Ihattaren
18D. Limnios
9K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Fortuna Sittard-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.09points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-2
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.82
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-7
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.91
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 4–3 H |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Telstar | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Feyenoord | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Twente | W 3–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 36 of 63 · 1.71 per game | 26 of 63 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Ajax wins1 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 6 Dec 2025Fortuna Sittard1–3Ajax
- 9 Feb 2025Fortuna Sittard0–2Ajax
- 18 Sep 2024Ajax5–0Fortuna Sittard
- 3 Sep 2023Fortuna Sittard0–0Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.91 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.23 | 3.23 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 64% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 73% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 4.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.95 | 6.76 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 11.52 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 86% 18/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.73 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 1.55 | |
| Match total | 3.46 | 3.91 | 3.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 9/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 7/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Ajax | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 7.90 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 13.20 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.40 | 3.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.34league 3.34
Red cards0.17league 0.20
Cards 5+31%league 31%
Fouls22.0league 21.6
Penalties0.24league 0.25
Home wins28%league 43%
Ajax1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Apr 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
Fortuna Sittard7 with this referee
Record0-3-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L25 Oct 25H · Groningen1–22
- D8 Aug 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
- L3 May 25A · PSV Eindhoven1–42
- L10 Jan 25H · GO Ahead Eagles0–32
- D20 Oct 24A · Willem II0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax22 games · scored 42 · conceded 29
7
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
11
5
31-45
9
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
7
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard22 games · scored 33 · conceded 38
8
5
0-15
1
8
16-30
7
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
10
7
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
5
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
