Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 24). Absences weigh more on Ajax. Ajax had 9.8 days of rest, Groningen 8.9 and had to travel 147 km.
Away travel147 kmRest days9.8 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Ajax57%
Draw23%
Groningen20%
Ajax56%
Draw24%
Groningen20%
Ajax58%
Draw23%
Groningen19%
Ajax49%
Draw25%
Groningen26%
Ajax55%
Draw24%
Groningen20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 44
Team strength
Ajax
Groningen
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
66
AttackIn forecast
41
55
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxGroningen
1.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
92%
Scored inContext
77%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
14.31
ShotsContext
14.54
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.75
42%
On target shareContext
43%
10.62
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
73%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.92
Shots allowedContext
10.92
5.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.92
BlocksContext
2.55
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
69%
Save rateContext
63%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
531
PassesContext
396
460
Accurate passesContext
313
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.85
FoulsContext
11.38
13.15
Fouls sufferedContext
10.62
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
60%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
15.40
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.89
35%
On target shareContext
40%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
66%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.90
Shots allowedContext
9.30
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
4.60
BlocksContext
1.63
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
54%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
509
PassesContext
404
440
Accurate passesContext
323
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.80
FoulsContext
11.60
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Groningen
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel147 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 8.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 147 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
30A. Bouwman
6Y. Regeer
8K. Taylor
4K. Itakura
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
25W. Weghorst
43Rayane Bounida
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
26T. van Bergen
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Groningen+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.00
Groningen · Away
1.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Twente | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 3–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 2–4 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Telstar | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 18 of 30 · 1.80 per game | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Ajax wins1 draws0 Groningen wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 May 2025Groningen2–2Ajax
- 6 Oct 2024Ajax3–1Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.77 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 3.23 | 2.92 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 54% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 54% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 23% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Ajax | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.40 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.69 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.85 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.54 | 9.83 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 1.85 | |
| Match total | 3.23 | 3.85 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 5/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 4/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Ajax | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 10.00 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.27league 3.36
Red cards0.07league 0.21
Cards 5+11%league 32%
Fouls17.0league 22.0
Penalties0.27league 0.28
Home wins55%league 49%
Ajax8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D4 Oct 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–33
- L20 Apr 25A · Utrecht0–43
- W9 Mar 25A · PEC Zwolle1–00
- W27 Oct 24H · Willem II1–01
- W11 Aug 24H · Heerenveen1–00
Groningen4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L28 Sep 25H · Feyenoord0–12
- L18 May 25A · PEC Zwolle0–20
- L5 Apr 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–32
- W15 Feb 25A · Willem II3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax13 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
5
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Groningen13 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 10 · conceded 26
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
7
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
