Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Ajax
4th · 54 pts · 31 played
WDLWW
First leg2–2
2–2Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 77 pts · 31 played
LLWWW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ajax. Ajax had 7 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 9 and had to travel 111 km.
Away travel111 kmRest days7 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Ajax33%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven43%
Ajax28%
Draw27%
PSV Eindhoven45%
Ajax33%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven43%
Ajax26%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven52%
Ajax33%
Draw25%
PSV Eindhoven42%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 76
Team strength
AjaxPSV Eindhoven
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
66
AttackIn forecast
60
55
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxPSV Eindhoven
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.87
94%
Scored inContext
97%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
14.00
ShotsContext
17.45
5.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.23
42%
On target shareContext
41%
9.71
Shots in the boxContext
11.94
68%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.03
Shots allowedContext
11.06
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.03
BlocksContext
3.54
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.93
72%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
510
PassesContext
553
437
Accurate passesContext
481
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.08
9.90
FoulsContext
10.81
11.74
Fouls sufferedContext
8.26
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
1.39
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
18.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
39%
On target shareContext
41%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
62%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.10
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.90
BlocksContext
4.50
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
71%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
476
PassesContext
557
399
Accurate passesContext
485
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.08
9.40
FoulsContext
9.30
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
7.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel111 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 111 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
26M. Paes(G)
2Lucas Rosa
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
3A. Gaaei
24J. Mokio
4K. Itakura
6Y. Regeer
11M. Godts
9K. Dolberg
23S. Berghuis
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
23J. Veerman
10P. Wanner
11C. Driouech
20G. Til
19E. Bajraktarević
9R. Pepi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-3
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 0.87
PSV Eindhoven · Away
2.60points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 13-0-2
- Scored
- 2.47
- Conceded
- 1.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Heracles | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H |
| Twente | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Feyenoord | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–0 AW 6–1 H |
| Groningen | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | W 6–1 HW 4–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 HW 5–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HW 5–1 A |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Telstar | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | W 4–3 HW 2–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 53 of 90 · 1.77 per game | 76 of 90 · 2.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Ajax wins2 draws1 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 21 Sep 2025PSV Eindhoven2–2Ajax
- 30 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven0–2Ajax
- 2 Nov 2024Ajax3–2PSV Eindhoven
- 3 Feb 2024Ajax1–1PSV Eindhoven
- 29 Oct 2023PSV Eindhoven5–2Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 4.23 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 97% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 84% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 74% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 3% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.52 | 7.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.34 | 4.03 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 11.13 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 16/29 | 77% 24/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 13/29 | 77% 24/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 12/29 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 1.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 1.61 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 3.06 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 12/31 | 29% 9/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 9/31 | 23% 7/31 | |
| Ajax | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 7.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 11.10 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 2.80 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.51league 3.12
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+33%league 25%
Fouls19.8league 21.2
Penalties0.18league 0.22
Home wins37%league 45%
Ajax5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D20 Dec 25A · NEC Nijmegen2–23
- W22 Dec 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–01
- D10 Nov 24A · Twente2–21
- W6 Oct 24H · Groningen3–13
- L8 Oct 23H · AZ Alkmaar1–22
PSV Eindhoven8 with this referee
Record7-1-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W1 Feb 26H · Feyenoord3–01
- W26 Oct 25A · Feyenoord3–21
- W12 Apr 25H · Almere City FC5–00
- D8 Feb 25H · Willem II1–10
- W19 Oct 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax31 games · scored 59 · conceded 37
9
5
0-15
11
5
16-30
15
6
31-45
11
8
46-60
4
7
61-75
9
6
76-90
PSV Eindhoven31 games · scored 90 · conceded 41
14
5
0-15
16
4
16-30
15
11
31-45
15
4
46-60
11
11
61-75
19
6
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
9
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
