Ajax
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Ajax
4th · 54 pts · 31 played
WDLWW
First leg2–2
2–2Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 77 pts · 31 played
LLWWW
Ajax33.2%fair odds 3.01
Draw23.5%fair odds 4.25
PSV Eindhoven43.3%fair odds 2.31
Expected goals1.58 – 1.82total 3.40
Likeliest score1–110.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Ajax ↓ · PSV Eindhoven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Ajax goals, columns PSV Eindhoven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%9.88
- 1–28.7%11.43
- 2–17.6%13.21
- 2–26.9%14.51
- 0–15.6%17.89
- 0–25.6%18.02
- 1–35.3%18.84
- 1–04.8%20.96
- 2–34.2%23.92
- 2–04.2%24.04
Winning margin
6.3%
Ajax by 3+
fair 15.78
9.9%
Ajax by 2
fair 10.13
17.0%
Ajax by 1
fair 5.89
23.5%
Draw
fair 4.25
19.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 5.08
13.2%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 7.59
10.5%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 9.55
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
26%5+
Ajax goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
8%4+
PSV Eindhoven goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax win | 33.2% | 33.2% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 23.5% | 24.8% | -1.3 pp |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 43.3% | 42.0% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 60.0% | +5.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 67.0% | 62.5% | +4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Ajax | 1.58 | 1.45 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 1.82 | 1.66 | +0.16 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Ajax win33.2%3.01
- Draw23.5%4.25
- PSV Eindhoven win43.3%2.31
- Double chance Ajax or draw56.7%1.76
- Double chance Ajax or PSV Eindhoven76.5%1.31
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw66.8%1.50
- Draw no bet Ajax43.4%2.31
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven56.6%1.77
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.8%1.17
- Over 2.565.9%1.52
- Over 3.544.1%2.27
- Over 4.525.5%3.92
- Under 1.514.2%7.03
- Under 2.534.1%2.94
- Under 3.555.9%1.79
Both teams to score
- Yes67.0%1.49
- No33.0%3.03
- Yes and over 2.556.9%1.76
- Ajax win and yes20.8%4.80
- Draw and yes19.7%5.09
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes26.5%3.77
Team goals
- Ajax over 0.579.3%1.26
- Ajax over 1.546.7%2.14
- Ajax over 2.521.0%4.75
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.583.8%1.19
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.554.3%1.84
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.527.5%3.64
- Ajax clean sheet16.2%6.17
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet20.7%4.83
- Ajax win to nil12.3%8.10
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil16.8%5.94
Handicap
- Ajax −1.516.2%6.17
- Ajax −2.56.3%15.78
- PSV Eindhoven +1.583.8%1.19
- PSV Eindhoven +2.593.7%1.07
- PSV Eindhoven −1.523.6%4.23
- Ajax +1.576.4%1.31
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored281
Favourite won52.0%
Avg chance given to result41.2%
1X2 Brier0.586
Over 2.5 called right61.6%
BTTS called right61.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.0% | 34.1% |
| 40–50% | 104 | 44.9% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 72 | 55.2% | 48.6% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.5% | 68.6% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 232 of 281 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5869 | 0.5806 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 42.3% |
| Favourite won | 51.3% | 53.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 232 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 281 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.