Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alanyaspor. Alanyaspor had 21 days of rest, Erzurumspor FK 20 and had to travel 892 km.
Away travel892 kmRest days21 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0
Alanyaspor45%
Draw26%
Erzurumspor FK29%
Alanyaspor44%
Draw26%
Erzurumspor FK31%
Alanyaspor45%
Draw26%
Erzurumspor FK29%
Alanyaspor38%
Draw27%
Erzurumspor FK35%
Alanyaspor45%
Draw26%
Erzurumspor FK29%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alanya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeDavut Dakul Celik
- Cards per match 7.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor FK
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
18
AttackIn forecast
17
24
DefenceIn forecast
38
62
Form indexContext
37
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisErzurumspor FK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporErzurumspor FK
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.59
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
100%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.67
ShotsContext
9.20
2.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
27%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
63%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.83
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.67
BlocksContext
2.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
78%
Save rateContext
62%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
318
PassesContext
429
248
Accurate passesContext
358
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.59
14.33
FoulsContext
10.80
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.59
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
90%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.10
ShotsContext
9.20
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
61%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.60
BlocksContext
2.50
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
72%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
350
PassesContext
429
282
Accurate passesContext
358
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.59
13.80
FoulsContext
10.80
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
WLWDW
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 10 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected
Erzurumspor FK
LDWLW
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel892 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 37 · 7 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Erzurumspor FK |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Süper Lig 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20Süper Lig 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 892 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
20F. Aksoy
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
55B. Gezek
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
19Iván Cédric
7Ibrahim Kaya
Erzurumspor FK
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze
18N. Mujakić
22M. Yumlu
4A. Gerxhaliu
53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez
42E. Owusu
6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso
10E. Tozlu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Erzurumspor FK
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Erzurumspor FK+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Erzurumspor FK · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 17% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.33 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 17% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 7.00 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.71 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 10.85 | 7.00 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davut Dakul Celik Türkiye · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards7.00league 4.11
Red cards0.00league 0.18
Cards 5+100%league 45%
Fouls32.0league 25.3
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins0%league 48%
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
Erzurumspor FKNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor6 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
5
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Erzurumspor FK6 games · scored 3 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Erzurumspor FK6 games · scored 3 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
