Alanyaspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alanyaspor44.0%fair odds 2.27
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.62
Erzurumspor FK28.3%fair odds 3.53
Expected goals1.44 – 1.10total 2.54
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Erzurumspor FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alanyaspor ↓ · Erzurumspor FK → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alanyaspor goals, columns Erzurumspor FK goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.59
- 1–010.7%9.37
- 2–19.0%11.14
- 0–08.6%11.68
- 2–08.1%12.29
- 0–18.0%12.42
- 1–26.9%14.50
- 2–25.0%20.20
- 0–24.8%20.81
- 3–14.3%23.28
Winning margin
8.3%
Alanyaspor by 3+
fair 12.09
13.4%
Alanyaspor by 2
fair 7.47
22.4%
Alanyaspor by 1
fair 4.47
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.62
17.0%
Erzurumspor FK by 1
fair 5.87
7.9%
Erzurumspor FK by 2
fair 12.66
3.4%
Erzurumspor FK by 3+
fair 29.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
Alanyaspor goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Erzurumspor FK goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 44.0% | 44.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.1% | +0.6 pp |
| Erzurumspor FK win | 28.3% | 28.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.6% | 48.7% | -2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 53.2% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Alanyaspor | 1.44 | 1.49 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Erzurumspor FK | 1.10 | 1.14 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alanyaspor win44.0%2.27
- Draw27.6%3.62
- Erzurumspor FK win28.3%3.53
- Double chance Alanyaspor or draw71.7%1.40
- Double chance Alanyaspor or Erzurumspor FK72.4%1.38
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or draw56.0%1.79
- Draw no bet Alanyaspor60.8%1.64
- Draw no bet Erzurumspor FK39.2%2.55
Goals
- Over 0.591.4%1.09
- Over 1.572.7%1.38
- Over 2.546.6%2.15
- Over 3.525.1%3.99
- Over 4.511.4%8.77
- Under 1.527.3%3.67
- Under 2.553.4%1.87
- Under 3.574.9%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.07
- Yes and over 2.538.4%2.60
- Alanyaspor win and yes19.4%5.16
- Draw and yes19.1%5.24
- Erzurumspor FK win and yes13.1%7.63
Team goals
- Alanyaspor over 0.576.2%1.31
- Alanyaspor over 1.542.0%2.38
- Alanyaspor over 2.517.5%5.71
- Erzurumspor FK over 0.566.8%1.50
- Erzurumspor FK over 1.530.2%3.31
- Erzurumspor FK over 2.510.0%9.98
- Alanyaspor clean sheet33.2%3.01
- Erzurumspor FK clean sheet23.8%4.20
- Alanyaspor win to nil24.6%4.06
- Erzurumspor FK win to nil15.2%6.56
Handicap
- Alanyaspor −1.521.7%4.62
- Alanyaspor −2.58.3%12.09
- Erzurumspor FK +1.578.3%1.28
- Erzurumspor FK +2.591.7%1.09
- Erzurumspor FK −1.511.3%8.83
- Alanyaspor +1.588.7%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored56
Favourite won44.6%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.620
Over 2.5 called right60.7%
BTTS called right48.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.7% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 22 | 44.9% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 55.1% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 74.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 30 of 56 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5998 | 0.5958 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.8% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 46.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 30 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 56 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.