Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahce – 18 Jan 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 18 Sun, Jan 18 · 17:00 GAIN Park Stadium, Antalya

Alanyaspor 10th · 21 pts · 17 played LDDDW

2–3Full time

Fenerbahce 2nd · 39 pts · 17 played WDDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 24). Absences weigh more on Fenerbahce. Alanyaspor had 28.2 days of rest, Fenerbahce 29.1 and had to travel 481 km.

Away travel481 kmRest days28.2 · 29.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Alanyaspor19%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce58%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.93

Alanyaspor19%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce58%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.85

Alanyaspor18%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce59%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.93

Alanyaspor14%

Draw20%

Fenerbahce65%

Expected goals 0.91 – 2.16

Alanyaspor20%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce57%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.85

Over 2.5 57% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Antalya)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen

Cards per match 2.8
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 11

Team strength

Alanyaspor

Fenerbahce

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 63

18 AttackIn forecast 67

24 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alanyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alanyaspor

Fenerbahce

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.29

0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.82

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.76

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

65% Scored inContext 88%

41% Clean sheetsContext 41%

11.47 ShotsContext 17.94

3.82 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.59

33% On target shareContext 37%

7.41 Shots in the boxContext 10.59

64% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.29

10.29 Shots allowedContext 9.18

3.82 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.00 BlocksContext 3.77

3.06 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

77% Save rateContext 83%

48% PossessionIn forecast 59%

396 PassesContext 467

331 Accurate passesContext 404

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.82 FoulsContext 12.71

15.41 Fouls sufferedContext 13.18

2.12 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

0.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.93

0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

60% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.00 ShotsContext 18.80

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.40

33% On target shareContext 39%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

63% Box shareContext 55%

7% ConversionContext 14%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.00 Shots allowedContext 9.50

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

3.17 BlocksContext 3.88

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

81% Save rateContext 82%

52% PossessionIn forecast 60%

414 PassesContext 484

354 Accurate passesContext 419

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.06

12.60 FoulsContext 11.20

15.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alanyaspor

Rest28.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel123 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fenerbahce

Rest29.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel481 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alanyaspor	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	28.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Dec	29.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	123 km	481 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alanyaspor Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1M. Taşkıran(G)

50Ü. Akdağ 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima

11Ruan 58Maestro 42G. Makouta 94F. Hadërgjonaj

16U. Hwang 22Uchenna Ogundu 7E. Karaca

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Ederson(G)

18M. Müldür 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

5İ. Yüksek 6M. Guendouzi

9M. Aktürkoğlu 21Marco Asensio 20A. Musaba

94Talisca

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alanyaspor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alanyaspor+0.8 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Fenerbahce-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Alanyaspor · Home 1.50points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 0.38

Fenerbahce · Away 2.11points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 5-4-0
Scored: 2.22
Conceded: 0.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Alanyaspor	Fenerbahce
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Kayserispor	D 0–0 A	W 4–2 H
Antalyaspor	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Samsunspor	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 A
Kasimpasa	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Trabzonspor	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 0–0 H	W 4–0 A
Kocaelispor	L 0–2 A	W 3–1 H
Goztepe	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Genclerbirligi	D 2–2 A	W 3–1 A
Galatasaray	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Istanbul Basaksehir	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Konyaspor	W 2–1 A	W 4–0 H
Besiktas	W 2–0 H	W 3–2 A
Eyüpspor	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
Rizespor	D 0–0 H	W 5–2 A
Points	20 of 48 · 1.25 per game	38 of 48 · 2.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Alanyaspor wins2 draws3 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game0.80 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%

17 Sep 2025Fenerbahce2–2Alanyaspor
9 Feb 2025Alanyaspor0–2Fenerbahce
30 Aug 2024Fenerbahce3–0Alanyaspor
11 Feb 2024Fenerbahce2–2Alanyaspor
24 Sep 2023Alanyaspor0–1Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alanyaspor	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	2.29
Conceded per game	0.88	0.82
Match goals	1.82	3.12	2.95
Over 1.5	65%	82%
Over 2.5	29%	59%	57%
Over 3.5	12%	47%
Both teams scored	47%	59%	55%
Clean sheets	41%	41%
Failed to score	35%	12%
Games	17	17

	Alanyaspor	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.60
Conceded per game	0.80	0.90
Match goals	1.60	3.50	2.95
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alanyaspor	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	5.57
Corners conceded	3.71	4.29
Match total	8.42	9.86	9.35
Over 8.5	43% 6/14	57% 8/14
Over 9.5	36% 5/14	43% 6/14
Over 10.5	36% 5/14	36% 5/14
Cards
Cards	2.12	2.35
Opponent cards	1.94	3.18
Match total	4.06	5.53	4.66
Over 3.5	53% 9/17	76% 13/17
Over 4.5	35% 6/17	59% 10/17

	Alanyaspor	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	6.30
Corners conceded	3.30	4.40
Match total	8.90	10.70	9.35
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.40
Opponent cards	1.50	2.60
Match total	3.60	5.00	4.66
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.82league 4.41

Red cards0.00league 0.24

Cards 5+18%league 46%

Fouls22.9league 25.8

Penalties0.18league 0.25

Home wins55%league 36%

Alanyaspor2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L25 Oct 25A · Kocaelispor0–20
D18 May 25H · Besiktas1–10

Fenerbahce1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W23 Aug 25H · Kocaelispor3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.