Alanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Alanyaspor
10th · 13 pts · 10 played
DLDWL
0–0Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
7th · 17 pts · 10 played
DDWWL
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Alanyaspor had 9.1 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 7 and had to travel 594 km.
Away travel594 kmRest days9.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Alanyaspor45%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep28%
Alanyaspor45%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep28%
Alanyaspor45%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Alanyaspor38%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep35%
Alanyaspor46%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep28%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
AlanyasporGazişehir Gaziantep
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
18
AttackIn forecast
15
24
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlanyasporGazişehir Gaziantep
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
14.90
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
33%
On target shareContext
32%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
62%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.90
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
2.70
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
73%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
367
PassesContext
417
296
Accurate passesContext
350
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.10
FoulsContext
13.10
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
14.90
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
33%
On target shareContext
32%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
62%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.90
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
2.70
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
73%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
367
PassesContext
417
296
Accurate passesContext
350
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.10
FoulsContext
13.10
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alanyaspor
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel123 km1,042 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel594 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alanyaspor |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 123 km | 594 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,042 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
88Y. Özdemir
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
11Ruan
27Ibrahim Kaya
22Uchenna Ogundu
14I. Hagi
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
4A. Kızıldağ
17S. Güler
30N. Sangaré
32Y. Kabadayı
3D. Camara
6M. Kabasakal
10K. Kozłowski
2Luis Pérez
44A. Maxim
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alanyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alanyaspor+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Alanyaspor · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.25
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Alanyaspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 2–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 6 of 15 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Alanyaspor wins0 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 9 May 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Alanyaspor
- 14 Dec 2024Alanyaspor3–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 2 Apr 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–3Alanyaspor
- 11 Nov 2023Alanyaspor0–3Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alanyaspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Alanyaspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alanyaspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 9.80 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 7.70 | 4.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Alanyaspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 9.80 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 7.70 | 4.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.00league 4.63
Red cards0.33league 0.29
Cards 5+0%league 53%
Fouls20.7league 26.2
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins33%league 38%
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
