Süper Lig Gameweek 21 Sun, Feb 14 · 12:00 GAIN Park Stadium, Alanya
Alanyaspor 9th · 12 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Rizespor 12th · 10 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel890 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Alanyaspor—%
Draw—%
Rizespor—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Alanya)

Forecast from 30 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Alanyaspor and Rizespor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AlanyasporRizespor
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
24 Current StrengthIn forecast 22
18 AttackIn forecast 22
24 DefenceIn forecast 35
49 Form indexContext 17
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alanyaspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Rizespor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AlanyasporRizespor
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.27
1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.27
75% Scored inContext 63%
38% Clean sheetsContext 25%
10.88 ShotsContext 15.00
3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
30% On target shareContext 32%
6.75 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
61% Box shareContext 57%
9% ConversionContext 7%
2.14 OffsidesContext 1.67
15.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25
4.38 BlocksContext 4.43
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
80% Save rateContext 74%
42% PossessionIn forecast 54%
334 PassesContext 434
270 Accurate passesContext 367
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.83
12.13 FoulsContext 10.25
13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03
+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.36
80% Scored inContext 60%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.00 ShotsContext 15.50
3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
35% On target shareContext 30%
6.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.80
58% Box shareContext 59%
11% ConversionContext 7%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.71
14.20 Shots allowedContext 14.10
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
4.10 BlocksContext 4.44
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
78% Save rateContext 71%
44% PossessionIn forecast 54%
354 PassesContext 433
291 Accurate passesContext 367
82% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.81
12.30 FoulsContext 9.90
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alanyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Fenerbahce0–30.5 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Erzurumspor FK0–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Çorum FK2–11.0 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Goztepe2–21.6 xPts
  • W7 SepA · Rizespor1–01.0 xPts
Rizespor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel890 km703 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Çorum FK1–21.0 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Fenerbahce0–30.9 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Goztepe2–21.3 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Eyüpspor2–01.5 xPts
  • L7 SepH · Alanyaspor0–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Alanyaspor Rizespor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 7 Feb7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km890 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,126 km703 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alanyaspor Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Fenerbahce (A) 0–3, 17 Oct
48Paulo Victor(G)
20F. Aksoy 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima
11Ruan 55B. Gezek 42G. Makouta 94F. Hadërgjonaj
7Ibrahim Kaya 17A. Usluoğlu 16U. Hwang
Rizespor Last XI · not confirmed
4-1-4-1 · vs Çorum FK (A) 1–2, 16 Oct
75Y. Fofana(G)
17Z. Ariss 93M. Sagnan 21S. Bakayoko 54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă 20Q. Laçi 10I. Olawoyin 11A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Alanyaspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Rizespor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Alanyaspor · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.67
Rizespor · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-1-1
Scored
1.60
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentAlanyasporRizespor
Fenerbahce L 0–3 A L 0–3 H
Çorum FK W 2–1 A L 1–2 A
Goztepe D 2–2 H D 2–2 A
Eyüpspor L 1–2 A W 2–0 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep D 1–1 A W 2–1 A
Points5 of 15 · 1.00 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Alanyaspor wins3 draws1 Rizespor wins
Goals per game0.86 – 0.71 Over 2.529% Both scored43% Clean sheets57% · 29%
  • 7 Sep 2026Rizespor0–1Alanyaspor
  • 25 Jan 2026Rizespor1–1Alanyaspor
  • 16 Aug 2025Alanyaspor0–0Rizespor
  • 2 Mar 2025Rizespor3–1Alanyaspor
  • 28 Sep 2024Alanyaspor1–0Rizespor
  • 20 Jan 2024Alanyaspor2–1Rizespor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AlanyasporRizesporForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 1.131.38
Match goals 2.132.38
Over 1.5 63%75%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 13%13%
Both teams scored 50%38%
Clean sheets 38%25%
Failed to score 25%38%
Games88
AlanyasporRizesporForecast
Scored per game 1.201.00
Conceded per game 1.201.70
Match goals 2.402.70
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 20%30%
Both teams scored 60%40%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 20%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AlanyasporRizesporLeague
Corners
Corners won4.715.43
Corners conceded4.143.86
Match total8.859.299.12
Over 8.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 10.543% 3/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.381.88
Opponent cards2.131.38
Match total3.513.264.04
Over 3.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 4.538% 3/825% 2/8
AlanyasporRizesporLeague
Corners
Corners won4.715.78
Corners conceded4.143.67
Match total8.859.459.12
Over 8.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 9.543% 3/733% 3/9
Over 10.543% 3/733% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.301.60
Opponent cards2.001.40
Match total3.303.004.04
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Alanyaspor8 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Rizespor8 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
46-60
1 2 61-75
3 5 76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 46-60
6 4 61-75
1 3 76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 46-60
1 3 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Besiktas Fenerbahce Feb 1412:00 Konyaspor Erzurumspor FK Feb 1412:00 Galatasaray Istanbul Basaksehir Feb 1412:00 Alanyaspor Rizespor Feb 1412:00 Genclerbirligi Trabzonspor Feb 1412:00 Gazişehir Gaziantep Goztepe Feb 1412:00 Amed Kasimpasa Feb 1412:00 Eyüpspor Çorum FK Feb 1412:00 Samsunspor Kocaelispor Feb 1412:00