Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alaves23.2%fair odds 4.32
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
Atletico Madrid50.6%fair odds 1.98
Expected goals1.00 – 1.60total 2.60
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alaves ↓ · Atletico Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alaves goals, columns Atletico Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.98
- 0–111.2%8.91
- 1–29.5%10.53
- 0–29.5%10.56
- 0–08.0%12.42
- 1–06.8%14.67
- 2–16.0%16.75
- 1–35.1%19.77
- 0–35.0%19.84
- 2–24.8%20.97
Winning margin
2.4%
Alaves by 3+
fair 42.28
6.2%
Alaves by 2
fair 16.18
14.6%
Alaves by 1
fair 6.84
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
23.6%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.23
15.7%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 6.39
11.3%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 8.87
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Alaves goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Atletico Madrid goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 23.2% | 23.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.4% | +0.8 pp |
| Atletico Madrid win | 50.6% | 51.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.2% | 51.7% | -3.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.2% | 53.9% | -2.8 pp |
| Expected goals Alaves | 1.00 | 1.07 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.60 | 1.68 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alaves win23.2%4.32
- Draw26.3%3.80
- Atletico Madrid win50.6%1.98
- Double chance Alaves or draw49.4%2.02
- Double chance Alaves or Atletico Madrid73.7%1.36
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw76.8%1.30
- Draw no bet Alaves31.4%3.18
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid68.6%1.46
Goals
- Over 0.592.0%1.09
- Over 1.573.9%1.35
- Over 2.548.2%2.08
- Over 3.526.4%3.78
- Over 4.512.3%8.15
- Under 1.526.1%3.83
- Under 2.551.8%1.93
- Under 3.573.6%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes51.2%1.95
- No48.8%2.05
- Yes and over 2.538.6%2.59
- Alaves win and yes11.0%9.12
- Draw and yes18.2%5.48
- Atletico Madrid win and yes22.0%4.55
Team goals
- Alaves over 0.563.3%1.58
- Alaves over 1.526.6%3.77
- Alaves over 2.58.1%12.35
- Atletico Madrid over 0.579.8%1.25
- Atletico Madrid over 1.547.4%2.11
- Atletico Madrid over 2.521.6%4.63
- Alaves clean sheet20.2%4.94
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet36.7%2.73
- Alaves win to nil12.2%8.20
- Atletico Madrid win to nil28.6%3.50
Handicap
- Alaves −1.58.5%11.70
- Alaves −2.52.4%42.28
- Atletico Madrid +1.591.5%1.09
- Atletico Madrid +2.597.6%1.02
- Atletico Madrid −1.526.9%3.71
- Alaves +1.573.1%1.37
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored23
Favourite won56.5%
Avg chance given to result43.9%
1X2 Brier0.536
Over 2.5 called right56.5%
BTTS called right60.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.1% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 44.3% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 53.6% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 23 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 23 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.