Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 48). Alaves had 7.8 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 6.9 and had to travel 284 km.
Away travel284 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alaves23%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid51%
Alaves23%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid51%
Alaves23%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid51%
Alaves18%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid58%
Alaves24%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid51%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 24
Team strength
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
48
AttackIn forecast
82
55
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesAtletico Madrid
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
54%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
7.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.50
BlocksContext
—
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
88%
Save rateContext
57%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
474
PassesContext
569
389
Accurate passesContext
498
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.75
15.50
FoulsContext
12.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.70
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.50
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
33%
On target shareContext
45%
7.38
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
60%
Box shareContext
66%
6%
ConversionContext
16%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.50
Shots allowedContext
7.70
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
2.90
BlocksContext
2.14
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
86%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
377
PassesContext
532
289
Accurate passesContext
465
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.08
16.40
FoulsContext
10.90
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,339 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atletico Madrid
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel284 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Aug | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,339 km | 995 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
22M. Diarra
14F. Tenaglia
2F. Garcés
17Jonny
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Carlos Vicente
11Toni Martínez
18Jon Guridi
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
17D. Hancko
15C. Lenglet
24R. Le Normand
14Marcos Llorente
11T. Almada
8Pablo Barrios
5J. Cardoso
20G. Simeone
19J. Alvarez
9A. Sørloth
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Atletico Madrid · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Alaves wins1 draws5 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.38
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 3 May 2025Alaves0–0Atletico Madrid
- 23 Nov 2024Atletico Madrid2–1Alaves
- 21 Apr 2024Alaves2–0Atletico Madrid
- 29 Oct 2023Atletico Madrid2–1Alaves
- 2 Apr 2022Atletico Madrid4–1Alaves
- 25 Sep 2021Alaves1–0Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 7.90 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 2.90 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.43
Red cards0.25league 0.26
Cards 5+42%league 26%
Fouls27.0league 23.8
Penalties0.29league 0.35
Home wins38%league 48%
Alaves4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L14 Apr 24A · Granada CF0–22
- D24 Feb 24H · Mallorca1–10
- D2 Jan 24A · Real Sociedad1–14
- L15 Sep 23A · Rayo Vallecano0–23
Atletico Madrid1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Apr 25A · Las Palmas0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
6
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
