Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Alaves had 21 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 20 and had to travel 284 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel284 kmRest days21 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0
Alaves30%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid45%
Alaves26%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid49%
Alaves30%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid45%
Alaves24%
Draw23%
Atletico Madrid53%
Alaves31%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid45%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
20°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 55%
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.54
- Matches 24
Team strength
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
48
AttackIn forecast
82
55
DefenceIn forecast
87
53
Form indexContext
80
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesAtletico Madrid
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.29
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
71%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.43
ShotsContext
17.00
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.43
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.57
60%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
4.50
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.14
Shots allowedContext
9.71
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
3.71
BlocksContext
3.00
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
79%
Save rateContext
70%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
320
PassesContext
563
253
Accurate passesContext
493
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.05
13.57
FoulsContext
12.29
13.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.86
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
15.30
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
38%
On target shareContext
37%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
63%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
4.13
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.30
BlocksContext
3.60
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
78%
Save rateContext
72%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
301
PassesContext
541
232
Accurate passesContext
471
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.90
FoulsContext
11.50
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
WWLLD
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 53 · 7 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Atletico Madrid
LLWWW
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel284 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 9 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
17Jonny
2N. Valentini
14F. Tenaglia
21A. Rebbach
19Pablo Ibáñez
8Antonio Blanco
4Denis Suárez
7Ángel Pérez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
22Álex Grimaldo
24R. Le Normand
21C. Romero
14Marcos Llorente
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
5J. Cardoso
6Koke
15J. David
11A. Lookman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −1.8% · Defence line −7.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF V. Koski Rotation 6.77 Def −5.2%
- MID Mikel Rodríguez Rotation 6.90 Att −1.8% Def −1.2%
- DEF F. Garcés Rotation 6.40 Def −1.2%
Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −6.2% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Sørloth Rotation 6.87 Att −6.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Atletico Madrid+0.5 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Atletico Madrid · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Osasuna | W 5–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Alaves wins2 draws6 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 18 Jan 2026Atletico Madrid1–0Alaves
- 30 Aug 2025Alaves1–1Atletico Madrid
- 3 May 2025Alaves0–0Atletico Madrid
- 23 Nov 2024Atletico Madrid2–1Alaves
- 21 Apr 2024Alaves2–0Atletico Madrid
- 29 Oct 2023Atletico Madrid2–1Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.29 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 86% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 8.00 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 3.86 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Alaves | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.00 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.71league 4.23
Red cards0.50league 0.26
Cards 5+58%league 53%
Fouls25.5league 24.6
Penalties0.54league 0.36
Home wins38%league 44%
Alaves3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 May 26H · Athletic Club2–44
- D13 Mar 26H · Villarreal1–14
- D24 Sep 25A · Getafe1–12
Atletico MadridNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves7 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid7 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
