Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alaves were slight favourites.
Alaves were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 41). Alaves had 7.8 days of rest, Elche 6.9 and had to travel 537 km.
Away travel537 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Alaves47%
Draw27%
Elche26%
Alaves48%
Draw26%
Elche26%
Alaves47%
Draw27%
Elche27%
Alaves40%
Draw28%
Elche33%
Alaves48%
Draw26%
Elche26%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 29
Team strength
Alaves
Elche
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
48
AttackIn forecast
39
55
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesElche
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
71%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.29
ShotsContext
11.00
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
36%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.86
61%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.86
Shots allowedContext
10.14
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
3.71
BlocksContext
2.86
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
74%
Save rateContext
73%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
419
PassesContext
533
333
Accurate passesContext
468
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.91
16.86
FoulsContext
12.29
14.57
Fouls sufferedContext
17.43
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
11.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
37%
On target shareContext
37%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
59%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.71
11.20
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.50
BlocksContext
3.78
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
78%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
396
PassesContext
508
309
Accurate passesContext
439
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.94
17.20
FoulsContext
12.60
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,743 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Elche
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel537 km1,025 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 537 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,743 km | 1,025 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.3 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
3Youssef Lekhedim
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
19Pablo Ibáñez
8Antonio Blanco
21A. Rebbach
15L. Boyé
20Calebe
11Toni Martínez
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
19G. Diangana
15Alvaro Núñez
10Rafa Mir
20Á. Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Elche-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Elche · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Levante | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Alaves wins0 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 5 Feb 2022Elche3–1Alaves
- 26 Oct 2021Alaves1–0Elche
- 11 May 2021Elche0–2Alaves
- 18 Oct 2020Alaves0–2Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 2.29 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 29% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Alaves | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 2.29 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 29% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 6.57 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.43 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Alaves | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 9.30 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 4.04
Red cards0.28league 0.28
Cards 5+41%league 45%
Fouls23.6league 24.5
Penalties0.21league 0.31
Home wins34%league 49%
Alaves3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L22 Aug 25A · Real Betis0–13
- D20 Apr 25A · Sevilla1–12
- W26 Jan 24A · Almeria3–02
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves7 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
76-90
Elche7 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
