Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alaves42.4%fair odds 2.36
Draw28.4%fair odds 3.52
Getafe29.1%fair odds 3.43
Expected goals1.36 – 1.08total 2.44
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Getafe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alaves ↓ · Getafe → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alaves goals, columns Getafe goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.42
- 1–011.1%8.97
- 0–09.4%10.66
- 0–18.7%11.45
- 2–18.7%11.49
- 2–08.0%12.44
- 1–26.9%14.43
- 0–25.1%19.62
- 2–24.7%21.23
- 3–13.9%25.36
Winning margin
7.4%
Alaves by 3+
fair 13.53
12.8%
Alaves by 2
fair 7.82
22.3%
Alaves by 1
fair 4.49
28.4%
Draw
fair 3.52
17.6%
Getafe by 1
fair 5.69
8.1%
Getafe by 2
fair 12.34
3.5%
Getafe by 3+
fair 28.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Alaves goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Getafe goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 42.4% | 42.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.7% | +0.7 pp |
| Getafe win | 29.1% | 29.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.1% | 47.1% | -2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.8% | 52.2% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Alaves | 1.36 | 1.42 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Getafe | 1.08 | 1.14 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alaves win42.4%2.36
- Draw28.4%3.52
- Getafe win29.1%3.43
- Double chance Alaves or draw70.9%1.41
- Double chance Alaves or Getafe71.6%1.40
- Double chance Getafe or draw57.6%1.74
- Draw no bet Alaves59.3%1.69
- Draw no bet Getafe40.7%2.46
Goals
- Over 0.590.6%1.10
- Over 1.570.7%1.41
- Over 2.544.1%2.27
- Over 3.523.0%4.35
- Over 4.510.1%9.88
- Under 1.529.3%3.42
- Under 2.555.9%1.79
- Under 3.577.0%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes49.8%2.01
- No50.2%1.99
- Yes and over 2.536.3%2.75
- Alaves win and yes17.9%5.57
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- Getafe win and yes12.8%7.79
Team goals
- Alaves over 0.574.3%1.35
- Alaves over 1.539.4%2.54
- Alaves over 2.515.7%6.38
- Getafe over 0.566.1%1.51
- Getafe over 1.529.5%3.40
- Getafe over 2.59.6%10.41
- Alaves clean sheet33.9%2.95
- Getafe clean sheet25.7%3.89
- Alaves win to nil24.5%4.08
- Getafe win to nil16.3%6.14
Handicap
- Alaves −1.520.2%4.96
- Alaves −2.57.4%13.53
- Getafe +1.579.8%1.25
- Getafe +2.592.6%1.08
- Getafe −1.511.6%8.65
- Alaves +1.588.4%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.