Alaves vs Getafe – 15 Aug 2026

La Liga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 15 · 18:30 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves

3–0Full time

Getafe

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alaves were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Alaves had 83.9 days of rest, Getafe 83.9 and had to travel 296 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel296 kmRest days83.9 · 83.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Alaves43%

Draw27%

Getafe30%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.08

Alaves41%

Draw26%

Getafe33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Alaves43%

Draw27%

Getafe30%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.08

Alaves36%

Draw28%

Getafe36%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.21

Alaves43%

Draw26%

Getafe30%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.14

Over 2.5 44% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

24°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 67%

Referee · SpainManuel Jesus Orellana Cid

Cards per match 6.1
Penalties per match 0.60
Matches 10

Team strength

Alaves

Getafe

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

48 AttackIn forecast 27

55 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Getafe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Getafe

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

100% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.90 ShotsContext 7.80

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

36% On target shareContext 31%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

70% Box shareContext 64%

14% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.44

11.20 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.20 BlocksContext 2.80

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

61% Save rateContext 76%

41% PossessionIn forecast 41%

335 PassesContext 261

265 Accurate passesContext 176

79% Pass accuracyContext 67%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.73

13.10 FoulsContext 15.20

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves

Rest83.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Getafe

Rest83.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel296 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Getafe
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	83.9La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May	83.9La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	296 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

17Jonny 16V. Koski 14F. Tenaglia

21A. Rebbach 4Denis Suárez 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez 7Ángel Pérez

20Aitor Mañas 11Toni Martínez

Getafe Confirmed XI

3-5-2

13David Soria(G)

24Z. Romero 5A. Abqar 2D. Dakonam

3Davinchi 6Mario Martín 23O. Mangala 11Ramon Terrats 17Kiko Femenía

10M. Satriano 21Andrés García

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Absences are shown before kick-off

Getafe Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Getafe+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home No home games yet this season.

Getafe · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Alaves wins5 draws4 Getafe wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.00 Over 2.510% Both scored30% Clean sheets30% · 60%

8 Feb 2026Alaves0–2Getafe
24 Sep 2025Getafe1–1Alaves
9 Feb 2025Alaves0–1Getafe
28 Sep 2024Getafe2–0Alaves
18 May 2024Alaves1–0Getafe
28 Aug 2023Getafe1–0Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Getafe	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.44
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	44%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	49%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Alaves	Getafe	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.90
Conceded per game	1.80	0.80
Match goals	3.60	1.70	2.44
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	70%	20%	44%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	20%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Getafe
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Alaves	Getafe
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.78
Corners conceded	5.30	4.33
Match total	10.50	9.11
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.40
Opponent cards	2.70	2.80
Match total	5.20	6.20
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid Spain · 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.40

Red cards0.70

Cards 5+70%

Fouls29.4

Penalties0.60

Home wins60%

Alaves

No previous matches with this referee.

Getafe

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.