Alaves vs Girona – 23 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 25 Mon, Feb 23 · 20:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves 15th · 26 pts · 24 played LWWLD

2–2Full time

Girona 13th · 29 pts · 24 played WDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alaves were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Girona. Alaves had 9.1 days of rest, Girona 7 and had to travel 461 km.

Away travel461 kmRest days9.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Alaves41%

Draw28%

Girona31%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.18

Alaves42%

Draw27%

Girona31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Alaves40%

Draw28%

Girona32%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.18

Alaves34%

Draw28%

Girona38%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.32

Alaves42%

Draw27%

Girona31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.25

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 14

Team strength

Alaves

Girona

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

48 AttackIn forecast 49

55 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Girona

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.58

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

63% Scored inContext 71%

13% Clean sheetsContext 17%

11.42 ShotsContext 9.63

3.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.79

33% On target shareContext 39%

7.48 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

66% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.74 OffsidesContext 2.61

12.00 Shots allowedContext 15.04

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.61

3.95 BlocksContext 3.67

2.52 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

66% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

429 PassesContext 438

348 Accurate passesContext 372

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.76

14.83 FoulsContext 11.21

14.04 Fouls sufferedContext 14.17

1.96 Yellow cardsContext 2.17

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.30

4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 39%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

65% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

13.60 Shots allowedContext 11.80

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

3.80 BlocksContext 3.30

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

62% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 51%

439 PassesContext 468

357 Accurate passesContext 401

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.70 FoulsContext 12.10

14.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves

Rest9.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,339 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Girona

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel461 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Girona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.1La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb	7La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	461 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,339 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

3Youssef Lekhedim 24Víctor Parada 14F. Tenaglia 17Jonny

10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez 7Ángel Pérez

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Girona Confirmed XI

4-5-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

4Arnau Martínez 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 2Hugo Rincón

21Bryan Gil 23Iván Martín 20A. Witsel 11T. Lemar 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Girona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+1.0 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Girona-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 1.50points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-4
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.08

Girona · Away 1.08points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.58

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Alaves	Girona
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Getafe	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Espanyol	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Real Betis	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 H
Villarreal	L 1–3 A	L 0–5 A
Oviedo	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H
Osasuna	L 0–3 A	W 1–0 H
Real Madrid	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 A
Barcelona	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
Celta Vigo	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–1 A	L 1–3 H
Valencia	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 H
Elche	W 3–1 H	L 0–3 A
Mallorca	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Athletic Club	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Levante	W 2–1 H	L 0–4 H
Points	26 of 69 · 1.13 per game	26 of 69 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Alaves wins1 draws3 Girona wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.40 Over 2.540% Both scored20% Clean sheets20% · 60%

8 Nov 2025Girona1–0Alaves
5 Apr 2025Girona0–1Alaves
11 Jan 2025Alaves0–1Girona
10 May 2024Alaves2–2Girona
18 Dec 2023Girona3–0Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	1.00
Conceded per game	1.25	1.58
Match goals	2.13	2.58	2.58
Over 1.5	63%	83%
Over 2.5	42%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	13%	17%
Both teams scored	54%	58%	53%
Clean sheets	13%	17%
Failed to score	38%	29%
Games	24	24

	Alaves	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.10
Conceded per game	1.50	1.20
Match goals	2.40	2.30	2.58
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	4.18
Corners conceded	4.57	4.77
Match total	9.67	8.95	9.53
Over 8.5	62% 13/21	50% 11/22
Over 9.5	48% 10/21	36% 8/22
Over 10.5	43% 9/21	32% 7/22
Cards
Cards	2.04	2.42
Opponent cards	2.25	1.75
Match total	4.29	4.17	4.44
Over 3.5	67% 16/24	33% 8/24
Over 4.5	46% 11/24	33% 8/24

	Alaves	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	3.50
Corners conceded	4.75	3.80
Match total	9.88	7.30	9.53
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.60
Opponent cards	2.20	2.30
Match total	3.80	4.90	4.44
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.14league 4.18

Red cards0.21league 0.27

Cards 5+50%league 46%

Fouls25.8league 24.5

Penalties0.36league 0.38

Home wins79%league 48%

Alaves2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L8 Nov 25A · Girona0–13
L27 Sep 25A · Mallorca0–13

Girona2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W8 Nov 25H · Alaves1–00
D14 Sep 25A · Celta Vigo1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.