Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alaves44.8%fair odds 2.23
Draw27.7%fair odds 3.62
Levante27.6%fair odds 3.63
Expected goals1.44 – 1.08total 2.52
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Levante
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alaves ↓ · Levante → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alaves goals, columns Levante goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.60
- 1–010.9%9.15
- 2–19.0%11.09
- 0–08.7%11.50
- 2–08.4%11.96
- 0–18.0%12.49
- 1–26.7%14.82
- 2–24.9%20.55
- 0–24.7%21.39
- 3–14.3%23.05
Winning margin
8.5%
Alaves by 3+
fair 11.75
13.6%
Alaves by 2
fair 7.33
22.6%
Alaves by 1
fair 4.42
27.7%
Draw
fair 3.62
16.7%
Levante by 1
fair 5.97
7.6%
Levante by 2
fair 13.11
3.2%
Levante by 3+
fair 31.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
14%4
11%5+
Alaves goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Levante goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 44.8% | 46.1% | -1.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.3% | +1.3 pp |
| Levante win | 27.6% | 27.6% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.2% | 51.3% | -5.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.1% | 55.0% | -3.9 pp |
| Expected goals Alaves | 1.44 | 1.57 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Levante | 1.08 | 1.16 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alaves win44.8%2.23
- Draw27.7%3.62
- Levante win27.6%3.63
- Double chance Alaves or draw72.4%1.38
- Double chance Alaves or Levante72.3%1.38
- Double chance Levante or draw55.2%1.81
- Draw no bet Alaves61.9%1.62
- Draw no bet Levante38.1%2.62
Goals
- Over 0.591.3%1.10
- Over 1.572.4%1.38
- Over 2.546.2%2.17
- Over 3.524.7%4.05
- Over 4.511.2%8.95
- Under 1.527.6%3.62
- Under 2.553.8%1.86
- Under 3.575.3%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes51.1%1.96
- No48.9%2.04
- Yes and over 2.537.9%2.64
- Alaves win and yes19.5%5.14
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- Levante win and yes12.7%7.90
Team goals
- Alaves over 0.576.4%1.31
- Alaves over 1.542.3%2.37
- Alaves over 2.517.7%5.65
- Levante over 0.566.0%1.52
- Levante over 1.529.3%3.41
- Levante over 2.59.5%10.48
- Alaves clean sheet34.0%2.94
- Levante clean sheet23.6%4.23
- Alaves win to nil25.3%3.95
- Levante win to nil14.9%6.70
Handicap
- Alaves −1.522.1%4.52
- Alaves −2.58.5%11.75
- Levante +1.577.9%1.28
- Levante +2.591.5%1.09
- Levante −1.510.8%9.22
- Alaves +1.589.2%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored3
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result56.7%
1X2 Brier0.331
Over 2.5 called right33.3%
BTTS called right66.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 72.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 3 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 3 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.