Alaves vs Levante – 16 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 16 · 20:30 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves

2–1Full time

Levante

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alaves were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Levante. Alaves had ? days of rest, Levante ? and had to travel 422 km.

Away travel422 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Alaves45%

Draw28%

Levante28%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.08

Alaves44%

Draw27%

Levante29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Alaves43%

Draw28%

Levante29%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.10

Alaves38%

Draw28%

Levante34%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.21

Alaves46%

Draw26%

Levante28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.16

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Team strength

Alaves

Levante

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

48 AttackIn forecast 55

55 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Levante

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.08 xGVia Att/Def —

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext —

60% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.50 ShotsContext 15.40

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

33% On target shareContext 35%

7.13 Shots in the boxContext 10.10

61% Box shareContext 67%

6% ConversionContext 14%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.57

10.90 Shots allowedContext 15.50

2.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

3.00 BlocksContext 2.70

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.11

81% Save rateContext 64%

46% PossessionIn forecast 48%

352 PassesContext 395

265 Accurate passesContext 312

75% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.76

17.20 FoulsContext 12.70

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Levante

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel422 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	422 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Antonio Sivera(G)

24Víctor Parada 14F. Tenaglia 2F. Garcés 17Jonny

8Antonio Blanco

10Carles Aleñá 19Pablo Ibáñez 18Jon Guridi 7Carlos Vicente

11Toni Martínez

Levante Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1Pablo Cuñat(G)

23Manu Sánchez 14Jorge Cabello 5Unai Elguezabal 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

7Roger Brugué 20Oriol Rey 10Pablo Martínez 17Víctor García

9Iván Romero

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Absences are shown before kick-off

Levante Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+1.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Levante-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home No home games yet this season.

Levante · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Alaves wins2 draws1 Levante wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.75 Over 2.575% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

15 May 2022Levante3–1Alaves
6 Nov 2021Alaves2–1Levante
8 May 2021Alaves2–2Levante
8 Nov 2020Levante1–1Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.52
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	46%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	51%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Alaves	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.52
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	46%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	51%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.67
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.33
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Alaves	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.40
Corners conceded	5.50	5.80
Match total	11.00	10.20	8.67
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.10	2.60
Opponent cards	2.50	3.00
Match total	5.60	5.60	4.33
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.