Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alaves were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Alaves had 6.1 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 6.1 and had to travel 284 km.
Away travel284 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Alaves42%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano30%
Alaves38%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano35%
Alaves40%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano32%
Alaves35%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Alaves43%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano30%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
RefereeJ. Manzano
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
48
AttackIn forecast
61
55
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesRayo Vallecano
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
73%
Scored inContext
68%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
11.76
ShotsContext
13.30
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.54
32%
On target shareContext
34%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.61
66%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.42
12.03
Shots allowedContext
11.73
4.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.97
3.94
BlocksContext
3.64
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
64%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
400
PassesContext
411
322
Accurate passesContext
339
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.65
FoulsContext
12.89
13.32
Fouls sufferedContext
11.03
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.54
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.80
ShotsContext
15.30
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
30%
On target shareContext
36%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
66%
Box shareContext
56%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.10
BlocksContext
3.33
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
68%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
335
PassesContext
379
264
Accurate passesContext
306
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.60
FoulsContext
14.90
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km527 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel284 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 527 km | 604 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 83.9 | 84 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
16V. Koski
14F. Tenaglia
21A. Rebbach
18Jon Guridi
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Ángel Pérez
11Toni Martínez
15L. Boyé
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
1Dani Cárdenas(G)
22A. Espino
32N. Mendy
16A. Mumin
20I. Balliu
15Gerard Gumbau
23Óscar Valentín
18Álvaro García
4Pedro Díaz
14Carlos Martín
11R. Nteka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+1.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.50points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.28
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.89points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-10
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Barcelona | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | D 3–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Levante | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Girona | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Points | 43 of 108 · 1.19 per game | 44 of 108 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Alaves wins0 draws5 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game0.29 – 1.14
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets29% · 71%
- 26 Oct 2025Rayo Vallecano1–0Alaves
- 29 Mar 2025Alaves0–2Rayo Vallecano
- 26 Oct 2024Rayo Vallecano1–0Alaves
- 10 Mar 2024Alaves1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 15 Sep 2023Rayo Vallecano2–0Alaves
- 16 Apr 2022Alaves1–0Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 2.62 | 2.22 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 35% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 32% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.20 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.94 | 5.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.03 | 5.03 | |
| Match total | 9.97 | 10.65 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 22/34 | 76% 28/37 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 18/34 | 62% 23/37 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 15/34 | 54% 20/37 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 4.68 | 5.02 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 26/37 | 73% 27/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 49% 18/37 | 57% 21/37 | |
| Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.40 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.30 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · J. Manzano 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.25
Red cards0.50league 0.28
Cards 5+75%league 46%
Fouls26.5league 24.5
Penalties0.50league 0.35
Home wins50%league 48%
AlavesNo previous matches with this referee.
Rayo VallecanoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves37 games · scored 43 · conceded 54
8
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
7
4
31-45
6
11
46-60
8
9
61-75
10
15
76-90
Rayo Vallecano37 games · scored 39 · conceded 43
2
5
0-15
6
6
16-30
11
7
31-45
5
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
9
12
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
