La Liga Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 18 · 16:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Alaves 7th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Rayo Vallecano 13th · 9 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel284 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Alaves—%
Draw—%
Rayo Vallecano—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Forecast from 3 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Alaves and Rayo Vallecano. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AlavesRayo Vallecano
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
48 Current StrengthIn forecast 58
48 AttackIn forecast 61
55 DefenceIn forecast 60
14 Form indexContext 66
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—
Defense risk—

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AlavesRayo Vallecano
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.39
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.11
78% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.78 ShotsContext 14.38
5.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.63
37% On target shareContext 32%
8.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.13
62% Box shareContext 55%
11% ConversionContext 10%
3.88 OffsidesContext 2.00
12.33 Shots allowedContext 15.88
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.38
4.50 BlocksContext 4.00
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
74% Save rateContext 61%
42% PossessionIn forecast 51%
340 PassesContext 406
270 Accurate passesContext 334
80% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.72
13.67 FoulsContext 12.88
13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.25
This league season, per match · 9 and 8 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.30
1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.10
80% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.40 ShotsContext 14.00
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
40% On target shareContext 32%
9.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.80
61% Box shareContext 52%
10% ConversionContext 10%
3.78 OffsidesContext 2.00
12.60 Shots allowedContext 15.70
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70
4.22 BlocksContext 4.30
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
74% Save rateContext 67%
43% PossessionIn forecast 52%
341 PassesContext 403
271 Accurate passesContext 331
80% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.77
13.60 FoulsContext 13.20
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,073 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Celta Vigo1–21.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Atletico Madrid1–21.2 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Athletic Club0–01.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Valencia0–11.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Racing Santander1–21.5 xPts
Rayo Vallecano
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel284 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D19 OctA · Getafe1–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Osasuna1–11.3 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Espanyol2–11.7 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Racing Santander3–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Alaves Rayo Vallecano
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Apr7La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km284 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,073 km604 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one33

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Celta Vigo (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach 2N. Valentini 16V. Koski 17Jonny 14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez
Rayo Vallecano Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Getafe (A) 1–1, 19 Oct
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa 15Mujaid Sadick 24F. Lejeune 20I. Balliu
6P. Ciss 8Unai López
18Álvaro García 10Sergio Camello 7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Alaves Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Rayo Vallecano Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 1.80points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
3-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Rayo Vallecano · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
0-2-3
Scored
1.20
Conceded
2.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAlavesRayo Vallecano
Racing Santander L 1–2 A W 3–2 H
Osasuna W 5–2 H D 1–1 A
Getafe W 3–0 H D 1–1 A
Points6 of 9 · 2.00 per game5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Alaves wins1 draws6 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game0.44 – 1.22 Over 2.511% Both scored22% Clean sheets22% · 56%
  • 20 Aug 2026Rayo Vallecano1–1Alaves
  • 23 May 2026Alaves1–2Rayo Vallecano
  • 26 Oct 2025Rayo Vallecano1–0Alaves
  • 29 Mar 2025Alaves0–2Rayo Vallecano
  • 26 Oct 2024Rayo Vallecano1–0Alaves
  • 10 Mar 2024Alaves1–0Rayo Vallecano

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AlavesRayo VallecanoForecast
Scored per game 1.441.50
Conceded per game 1.112.13
Match goals 2.563.63
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 56%63%
Over 3.5 11%38%
Both teams scored 56%100%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 22%0%
Games98
AlavesRayo VallecanoForecast
Scored per game 1.401.60
Conceded per game 1.201.80
Match goals 2.603.40
Over 1.5 70%100%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 10%30%
Both teams scored 60%90%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AlavesRayo VallecanoLeague
Corners
Corners won4.295.63
Corners conceded5.146.38
Match total9.4312.019.91
Over 8.543% 3/763% 5/8
Over 9.543% 3/763% 5/8
Over 10.529% 2/763% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.782.75
Opponent cards2.332.50
Match total4.115.254.73
Over 3.556% 5/963% 5/8
Over 4.533% 3/963% 5/8
AlavesRayo VallecanoLeague
Corners
Corners won5.005.10
Corners conceded5.136.50
Match total10.1311.609.91
Over 8.550% 4/860% 6/10
Over 9.550% 4/860% 6/10
Over 10.538% 3/860% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.903.10
Opponent cards2.402.60
Match total4.305.704.73
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.540% 4/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Rayo Vallecano8 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
4 2 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
4 76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 3 76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 5 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Espanyol Apr 1816:00 Atletico Madrid Sevilla Apr 1816:00 Malaga Valencia Apr 1816:00 Levante Villarreal Apr 1816:00 Alaves Rayo Vallecano Apr 1816:00 Real Betis Athletic Club Apr 1816:00 Deportivo La Coruna Celta Vigo Apr 1816:00 Getafe Real Madrid Apr 1816:00 Real Sociedad Racing Santander Apr 1816:00 Elche Osasuna Apr 1816:00