Alaves vs Sevilla – 20 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 17:30 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves 8th · 7 pts · 4 played WLDW

1–2Full time

Sevilla 13th · 4 pts · 4 played LLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alaves were slight favourites.

Alaves were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 45). Alaves had 7 days of rest, Sevilla 7.9 and had to travel 669 km.

Away travel669 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Alaves46%

Draw27%

Sevilla26%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.05

Alaves47%

Draw26%

Sevilla27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Alaves46%

Draw27%

Sevilla27%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.06

Alaves39%

Draw28%

Sevilla33%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.18

Alaves47%

Draw26%

Sevilla26%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.12

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 2

Team strength

Alaves

Sevilla

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

48 AttackIn forecast 48

55 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alaves

Sevilla

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +1.01

75% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

8.75 ShotsContext 10.75

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 37%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

60% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 16%

1.67 OffsidesContext 4.33

12.25 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

3.75 BlocksContext 6.00

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

88% Save rateContext 90%

49% PossessionIn forecast 55%

418 PassesContext 428

333 Accurate passesContext 357

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.81

15.50 FoulsContext 14.75

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

70% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.50 ShotsContext 12.90

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

33% On target shareContext 35%

6.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

58% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.10 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.00 BlocksContext 3.89

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

94% Save rateContext 63%

45% PossessionIn forecast 50%

354 PassesContext 409

263 Accurate passesContext 340

74% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.83

16.30 FoulsContext 14.70

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km101 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sevilla

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel669 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alaves	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep	7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	669 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	101 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Antonio Sivera(G)

22M. Diarra 14F. Tenaglia 2F. Garcés 17Jonny

4Denis Suárez 8Antonio Blanco 18Jon Guridi

10Carles Aleñá 15L. Boyé 7Carlos Vicente

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Sevilla Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

23Marcão 5T. Nianzou 3César Azpilicueta

12G. Suazo 19B. Mendy 18L. Agoumé 2J. Carmona Navarro

17Alfon González 11R. Vargas

7Isaac Romero

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alaves Absences are shown before kick-off

Sevilla Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alaves+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sevilla-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Sevilla · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Alaves	Sevilla
Athletic Club	W 1–0 A	L 2–3 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Alaves wins3 draws2 Sevilla wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.50 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 25%

20 Apr 2025Sevilla1–1Alaves
20 Sep 2024Alaves2–1Sevilla
12 Jan 2024Sevilla2–3Alaves
21 Aug 2023Alaves4–3Sevilla
4 Mar 2022Alaves0–0Sevilla
20 Nov 2021Sevilla2–2Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alaves	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.75
Conceded per game	0.75	1.75
Match goals	1.75	3.50	2.52
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	75%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	51%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

	Alaves	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.75
Conceded per game	0.75	1.75
Match goals	1.75	3.50	2.52
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	75%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	51%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alaves	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	2.50
Corners conceded	4.50	6.50
Match total	9.25	9.00	9.50
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.25
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	4.50	3.75	4.19
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4

	Alaves	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	3.70
Corners conceded	5.60	4.70
Match total	10.90	8.40	9.50
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.30
Match total	4.60	5.00	4.19
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 2 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.86

Red cards0.00league 0.27

Cards 5+50%league 39%

Fouls30.0league 24.6

Penalties0.00league 0.32

Home wins50%league 48%

Alaves

No previous matches with this referee.

Sevilla

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.