Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 25). Benfica usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Alverca had 5.9 days of rest, Benfica 7.9 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days5.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Alverca13%
Draw21%
Benfica67%
Alverca13%
Draw20%
Benfica67%
Alverca13%
Draw21%
Benfica67%
Alverca9%
Draw18%
Benfica73%
Alverca13%
Draw20%
Benfica67%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Bessa
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 19
Team strength
Alverca
Benfica
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
38
AttackIn forecast
81
42
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaBenfica
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
2.29
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
7.00
ShotsContext
15.00
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
33%
On target shareContext
40%
4.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
60%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
13.67
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.33
BlocksContext
3.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
53%
Save rateContext
100%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
294
PassesContext
449
221
Accurate passesContext
374
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.66
Team ratingContext
7.00
14.33
FoulsContext
16.00
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.30
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
2.04
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
67%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
7.00
ShotsContext
14.50
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
32%
4.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
60%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.67
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
4.33
BlocksContext
2.90
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
53%
Save rateContext
90%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
294
PassesContext
459
221
Accurate passesContext
384
75%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.66
Team ratingContext
7.12
14.33
FoulsContext
13.70
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km46 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Benfica
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Aug | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 46 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.1 | 12.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
12Isaac James
3Julián Jose Martinez
5Sergi Gómez
14S. Baseya
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
21S. Abdulai
8Alexsandro Amorim
11Cedric Nuozzi
9M. Milovanović
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
44Tomás Araújo
17A. Dedić
5E. Barrenechea
20Richard Ríos
21A. Schjelderup
18L. Barreiro
8F. Aursnes
9F. Ivanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Benfica · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Alverca | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.50 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 11.50 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 5.00 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Alverca | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.50 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.50 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 5.10 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Bessa 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 5.06
Red cards0.32league 0.19
Cards 5+47%league 61%
Fouls24.3league 28.1
Penalties0.21league 0.32
Home wins58%league 35%
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
Benfica1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Feb 25H · Boavista3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca3 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Benfica2 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Alverca3 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 19 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
