Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alverca. Alverca had 7.9 days of rest, Casa Pia 5.8 and had to travel.
Rest days7.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Alverca51%
Draw27%
Casa Pia22%
Alverca47%
Draw26%
Casa Pia27%
Alverca51%
Draw27%
Casa Pia22%
Alverca44%
Draw29%
Casa Pia27%
Alverca52%
Draw26%
Casa Pia22%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 8
Team strength
Alverca
Casa Pia
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
38
AttackIn forecast
13
42
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaCasa Pia
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
75%
Scored inContext
56%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
9.50
ShotsContext
8.15
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
37%
On target shareContext
33%
6.15
Shots in the boxContext
4.77
64%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.64
Shots allowedContext
14.26
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.59
4.00
BlocksContext
4.07
3.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
67%
Save rateContext
60%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
357
PassesContext
300
288
Accurate passesContext
224
81%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.93
FoulsContext
15.37
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.85
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.83
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.10
ShotsContext
8.00
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.40
32%
On target shareContext
30%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
4.70
62%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.90
Shots allowedContext
16.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.10
BlocksContext
5.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
65%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
360
PassesContext
254
291
Accurate passesContext
175
81%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.65
10.70
FoulsContext
15.40
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km548 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 548 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
12Isaac James
18Lincoln
26Rhaldney
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
91Sandro Lima
20Figueiredo
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
3Kaly
43David Sousa
4João Goulart
75Pedro Rosas
8Rafael Brito
42S. Pérez
72Gaizka Larrazabal
11João Marques
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.36points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.43
Casa Pia · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 AL 0–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| AVS | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Tondela | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–4 AL 3–5 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Estoril | L 1–4 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Arouca | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 29 of 81 · 1.07 per game | 25 of 78 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Alverca wins0 draws0 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025Casa Pia0–2Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 2.81 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 48% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 48% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 44% | |
| Games | 28 | 27 |
| Alverca | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.05 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.55 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.44 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 10/20 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 6/20 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.46 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 5.45 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 15/28 | 85% 23/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Alverca | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 10.11 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.90 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.88league 4.82
Red cards0.25league 0.25
Cards 5+63%league 57%
Fouls25.9league 26.9
Penalties0.13league 0.43
Home wins50%league 41%
Alverca2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Feb 26A · Guimaraes1–12
- W12 Sep 25H · Tondela1–01
Casa Pia2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Dec 25H · Guimaraes0–04
- D3 Oct 25H · Estoril2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca28 games · scored 29 · conceded 46
3
6
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
9
31-45
3
8
46-60
3
8
61-75
11
8
76-90
Casa Pia26 games · scored 24 · conceded 44
4
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
11
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
7
61-75
4
9
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
