Alverca vs Estrela – 15 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 15 · 15:30 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–2Full time

Estrela 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alverca were slight favourites.

Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alverca. Alverca had 5.9 days of rest, Estrela 6.8 and had to travel 23 km.

Away travel23 kmRest days5.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Alverca52%

Draw24%

Estrela23%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.04

Alverca51%

Draw24%

Estrela24%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07

Alverca52%

Draw24%

Estrela23%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.04

Alverca45%

Draw26%

Estrela29%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.16

Alverca53%

Draw24%

Estrela23%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.07

Over 2.5 51% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)

No weather data yet

RefereeJosé Bessa

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 31

Team strength

Alverca

Estrela

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

38 AttackIn forecast 24

42 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alverca

Estrela

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

60% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.70 ShotsContext 10.60

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

37% On target shareContext 31%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.70

61% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.10 Shots allowedContext 12.80

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.44 BlocksContext 4.44

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

64% Save rateContext 66%

45% PossessionIn forecast 43%

355 PassesContext 331

288 Accurate passesContext 261

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.50 FoulsContext 12.90

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alverca L

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km506 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 44 · 0 pts vs 0.7 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

L9 AugA · FC Porto0–20.5 xPts

Estrela D

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel23 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 50 · 1 pts vs 1.0 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

D8 AugH · Sporting CP2–20.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alverca	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Aug	6.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	23 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	506 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31Matheus Mendes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 4Y. Bojang 14S. Baseya

12Isaac James 25Ian Luccas 6D. Gui 2Zoubdi

22Figueiredo 10Chiquinho

9Vivaldo Semedo

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-3-3

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Luan Patrick 17Jefferson Encada

8Robinho 39G. Doue 14L. Zvonarek

10I. Stoica 37Leandro Antonetti 99A. Marcus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alverca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Alverca · Home No home games yet this season.

Estrela · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Alverca wins2 draws0 Estrela wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

31 Jan 2026Alverca1–1Estrela
25 Aug 2025Estrela2–2Alverca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alverca	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	2.72
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Alverca	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	2.60	2.70	2.72
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alverca	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	9.00	5.00
Corners conceded	7.00	4.00
Match total	16.00	9.00	9.20
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	2.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	5.20
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Alverca	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.00
Corners conceded	5.20	5.67
Match total	10.80	9.67	9.20
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.70
Match total	3.50	5.60	5.20
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Bessa 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.19league 5.00

Red cards0.32league 0.20

Cards 5+58%league 50%

Fouls25.7league 26.8

Penalties0.23league 0.40

Home wins39%league 40%

Alverca2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D31 Jan 26H · Estrela1–11
L31 Aug 25H · Benfica1–24

Estrela5 with this referee

Record2-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

D31 Jan 26A · Alverca1–12
D2 Mar 25A · Moreirense1–14
L4 Feb 24A · Estoril0–12
W8 Oct 23A · Casa Pia1–01
W25 Aug 23H · Estoril2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.