Alverca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alverca51.8%fair odds 1.93
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.94
Estrela22.7%fair odds 4.40
Expected goals1.68 – 1.04total 2.72
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Estrela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alverca ↓ · Estrela → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alverca goals, columns Estrela goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.26
- 1–010.5%9.55
- 2–19.7%10.34
- 2–09.3%10.73
- 0–07.2%13.90
- 0–16.2%16.06
- 1–26.0%16.76
- 3–15.4%18.43
- 3–05.2%19.13
- 2–25.0%19.92
Winning margin
12.4%
Alverca by 3+
fair 8.09
16.1%
Alverca by 2
fair 6.22
23.4%
Alverca by 1
fair 4.27
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.94
14.2%
Estrela by 1
fair 7.04
6.1%
Estrela by 2
fair 16.34
2.4%
Estrela by 3+
fair 41.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Alverca goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Estrela goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 51.8% | 52.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Estrela win | 22.7% | 22.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 53.2% | -2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.2% | 54.8% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Alverca | 1.68 | 1.73 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Estrela | 1.04 | 1.07 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alverca win51.8%1.93
- Draw25.4%3.94
- Estrela win22.7%4.40
- Double chance Alverca or draw77.3%1.29
- Double chance Alverca or Estrela74.6%1.34
- Double chance Estrela or draw48.2%2.08
- Draw no bet Alverca69.5%1.44
- Draw no bet Estrela30.5%3.28
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.1%1.31
- Over 2.551.1%1.96
- Over 3.529.0%3.44
- Over 4.514.0%7.14
- Under 1.523.9%4.19
- Under 2.548.9%2.05
- Under 3.571.0%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes53.2%1.88
- No46.8%2.14
- Yes and over 2.541.1%2.43
- Alverca win and yes23.6%4.23
- Draw and yes18.2%5.49
- Estrela win and yes11.3%8.81
Team goals
- Alverca over 0.581.4%1.23
- Alverca over 1.550.1%1.99
- Alverca over 2.523.8%4.20
- Estrela over 0.564.6%1.55
- Estrela over 1.527.8%3.59
- Estrela over 2.58.7%11.44
- Alverca clean sheet35.4%2.82
- Estrela clean sheet18.6%5.38
- Alverca win to nil28.2%3.54
- Estrela win to nil11.4%8.77
Handicap
- Alverca −1.528.4%3.52
- Alverca −2.512.4%8.09
- Estrela +1.571.6%1.40
- Estrela +2.587.6%1.14
- Estrela −1.58.5%11.71
- Alverca +1.591.5%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored10
Favourite won30.0%
Avg chance given to result37.2%
1X2 Brier0.714
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 3 | 44.7% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 50.9% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.7% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 10 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 10 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.