Alverca vs GIL Vicente – 24 Oct 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 9 Fri, Oct 24 · 20:15 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca 9th · 10 pts · 8 played LWLWW

0–4Full time

GIL Vicente 4th · 16 pts · 8 played WWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Alverca were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Alverca had 20.1 days of rest, GIL Vicente 20.2 and had to travel 295 km.

Away travel295 kmRest days20.1 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Alverca42%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente30%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.13

Alverca43%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21

Alverca42%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente30%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.13

Alverca35%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente37%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.27

Alverca43%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 82

Team strength

Alverca

GIL Vicente

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

38 AttackIn forecast 32

42 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alverca

GIL Vicente

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

88% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 75%

8.63 ShotsContext 14.25

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88

44% On target shareContext 34%

5.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

62% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 9%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.83

12.13 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

3.38 BlocksContext 2.67

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57

74% Save rateContext 83%

44% PossessionIn forecast 46%

341 PassesContext 334

270 Accurate passesContext 262

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.87

13.50 FoulsContext 14.75

14.75 Fouls sufferedContext 14.38

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

88% Scored inContext 80%

25% Clean sheetsContext 60%

8.63 ShotsContext 13.90

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

44% On target shareContext 34%

5.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

62% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 9%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.13 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.38 BlocksContext 2.38

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

74% Save rateContext 81%

44% PossessionIn forecast 47%

341 PassesContext 348

270 Accurate passesContext 275

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.90

13.50 FoulsContext 14.30

14.75 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alverca

Rest20.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

GIL Vicente

Rest20.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel295 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alverca	GIL Vicente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct	20.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	295 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	10.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13André Gomes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 5Sergi Gómez 4Kaiky Naves

55Francisco Chissumba 21S. Abdulai 8Alexsandro Amorim 2Zoubdi

20Figueiredo 9M. Milovanović 18Lincoln

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

42Andrew(G)

3G. Konan 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 2Zé Carlos

5F. Cáseres

11Joelson Fernandes 10Luís Esteves 95Santi García 77Murilo

9Pablo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

GIL Vicente Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alverca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GIL Vicente+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Alverca · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.25

GIL Vicente · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Alverca	GIL Vicente
Benfica	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Estrela	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
SC Braga	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 A
Moreirense	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Points	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Alverca	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.25
Conceded per game	1.50	0.50
Match goals	2.88	1.75	2.50
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	13%	46%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	63%	13%	51%
Clean sheets	25%	75%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

	Alverca	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.25
Conceded per game	1.50	0.50
Match goals	2.88	1.75	2.50
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	13%	46%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	63%	13%	51%
Clean sheets	25%	75%
Failed to score	13%	25%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alverca	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	2.80	5.33
Corners conceded	4.80	5.83
Match total	7.60	11.16	9.31
Over 8.5	20% 1/5	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	20% 1/5	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.75
Opponent cards	3.25	2.75
Match total	6.00	5.50	5.42
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	88% 7/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8

	Alverca	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	2.80	5.25
Corners conceded	4.80	5.25
Match total	7.60	10.50	9.31
Over 8.5	20% 1/5	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	20% 1/5	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.30
Opponent cards	3.25	2.50
Match total	6.00	4.80	5.42
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.38league 5.24

Red cards0.18league 0.28

Cards 5+45%league 67%

Fouls26.3league 27.7

Penalties0.26league 0.43

Home wins44%league 36%

Alverca

No previous matches with this referee.

GIL Vicente4 with this referee

Record0-0-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L18 May 24A · Estrela0–11
L26 Aug 23H · Benfica2–33
L30 Oct 22H · SC Braga0–14
L3 Sep 22H · FC Porto0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.