Primeira Liga Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 26 2025 · 15:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Estoril
1–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 1.73 – 1.20
Nacional
  • Y. Begraoui 60’ (P)
  • 37’ Zé Vitor
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Estoril and Nacional share the points

Estoril entered as narrow favourites, yet Nacional led 1–0 at half-time through a Vitor goal. But Begraoui scored to rescue a draw for Estoril. Estoril finished with the higher xG (1.73 vs 1.20).

Estoril45%
Draw ✓28%
Nacional28%

Model vs reality

Estoril goals
1
Model 1.45 · xG 1.73
Nacional goals
1
Model 1.09 · xG 1.20
Total goals
2
Model 2.54 · xG 2.93
Score 1–1
13%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 47%
Both scored
Yes
Model 52%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchLéo SantosNacional
7.6
  • RefereeMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
  • VenueEstádio António Coimbra da Mota
  • Table before kick-offEstoril 16th · Nacional 11th

Timeline

  1. Zé Vitor 0–1
    37’
  2. J. RamírezYellow card
    40’
  3. Paulinho BóiaYellow card
    45+2’
  4. VAR Paulinho BóiaGoal Disallowed - offside
    45+5’
  5. Half time · 0–1
  6. ⇄ N. LominadzeFor Jandro Orellana
    46’
  7. Y. Begraoui (pen) 1–1
    60’
  8. Gonçalo CostaYellow card
    63’
  9. ⇄ Tiago ParenteFor Gonçalo Costa
    66’
  10. ⇄ Filipe SoaresFor C. Labidi
    67’
  11. ⇄ WitiFor Pablo Ruan
    67’
  12. ⇄ PeixinhoFor André Lacximicant
    72’
  13. ⇄ A. MarquésFor Pedro Carvalho
    72’
  14. ⇄ PizziFor Y. Begraoui
    81’
  15. ⇄ Lucas JoãoFor J. Ramírez
    85’
  16. J. HolsgroveYellow card
    85’
  17. ⇄ Martim WattsFor Paulinho Bóia
    85’
  18. João CarvalhoYellow card
    90+7’
  19. José GomesYellow card
    90+8’
  20. Full time · 1–1

Team stats

Estoril12 shots · 9 in box, 3 outside
Nacional9 shots · 7 in box, 2 outside
EstorilNacional
59% Possession 41%
1.73 Expected goals (xG) 1.20
1.73 Expected points (xPts) 1.03
12 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 4
6 Shots off target 4
2 Blocked shots 1
9 Shots inside the box 7
3 Shots outside the box 2
379 Passes 262
75% Pass accuracy 68%
6 Corners 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
12 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 3
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
6.70 Team rating 6.78

Line-ups

Estoril 4-4-2

17.3 Joel Robles(G)
206.2 Gonçalo Costa ↓66’ 256.9 F. Bacher 446.5 K. Boma 56.7 A. Tsoungui
127.0 João Carvalho 106.6 J. Holsgrove 66.5 Jandro Orellana ↓46’ 226.2 Pedro Carvalho ↓72’
196.9 André Lacximicant ↓72’ 146.6 Y. Begraoui ↓81’
  • 1Joel Robles (G)7.3
  • 20Gonçalo Costa↓66’6.2
  • 25F. Bacher6.9
  • 44K. Boma6.5
  • 5A. Tsoungui6.7
  • 12João Carvalho7.0
  • 10J. Holsgrove6.6
  • 6Jandro Orellana↓46’6.5
  • 22Pedro Carvalho↓72’6.2
  • 19André Lacximicant↓72’6.9
  • 14Y. Begraoui↓81’6.6

Substitutes used

  • 7N. Lominadze↑46’7.0
  • 55Tiago Parente↑66’6.3
  • 70Peixinho↑72’6.9
  • 9A. Marqués↑72’6.2
  • 21Pizzi↑81’6.3

Unused: M. Turk, Ferro, Tiago Brito, Fabrício Garcia

Nacional 4-3-3

16.9 Kaique(G)
55.9 José Gomes 386.9 Zé Vitor 347.6★ Léo Santos 26.7 João Aurélio
156.7 C. Labidi ↓67’ 66.7 Matheus Dias 287.5 Liziero
116.9 Paulinho Bóia ↓85’ 96.2 J. Ramírez ↓85’ 996.5 Pablo Ruan ↓67’
  • 1Kaique (G)6.9
  • 5José Gomes5.9
  • 38Zé Vitor6.9
  • 34Léo Santos ★7.6
  • 2João Aurélio6.7
  • 15C. Labidi↓67’6.7
  • 6Matheus Dias6.7
  • 28Liziero7.5
  • 11Paulinho Bóia↓85’6.9
  • 9J. Ramírez↓85’6.2
  • 99Pablo Ruan↓67’6.5

Substitutes used

  • 22Filipe Soares↑67’6.9
  • 7Witi↑67’6.6
  • 30Martim Watts↑85’6.2
  • 19Lucas João↑85’6.5

Unused: Kevyn, Alan Nuñez, Francisco Gonçalves, André Sousa, Joel Silva

Player stats

Top rated
Léo SantosNacional7.6
2nd
LizieroNacional7.5
3rd
Joel RoblesEstoril7.3

Estoril

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Joel Robles G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 61% 31 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.3
Gonçalo Costa D 66 0 0 1 (0) 0 67% 24 1 0 1/2 1/0 6.2
F. Bacher D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 55 0 2 0/0 1/1 6.9
K. Boma D 90 0 0 2 (1) 0 79% 48 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.5
A. Tsoungui D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 82% 33 0 1 1/1 0/0 6.7
João Carvalho M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 56% 39 3 2 4/7 2/1 7.0
J. Holsgrove M 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 87% 54 0 0 0/0 2/3 6.6
Jandro Orellana M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 69% 13 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
Pedro Carvalho D 72 0 0 1 (0) 0 72% 18 1 1 0/1 0/2 6.2
André Lacximicant F 72 0 0 0 (0) 2 56% 9 1 0 0/0 2/3 6.9
Y. Begraoui F 81 1 0 2 (1) 0 67% 9 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.6
N. Lominadze M 44 0 0 0 (0) 0 65% 17 5 1 0/0 0/0 7.0
Tiago Parente D 24 0 0 1 (1) 0 60% 10 0 1 1/1 1/0 6.3
Peixinho F 18 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 5 0 1 2/3 0/1 6.9
A. Marqués F 18 0 0 1 (1) 0 50% 4 1 0 0/1 2/0 6.2
Pizzi M 9 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 10 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Nacional

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Kaique G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 51% 37 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.9
José Gomes D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 64% 11 2 0 0/1 1/1 5.9
Zé Vitor D 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 67% 24 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.9
Léo Santos D 90 0 0 2 (1) 0 65% 34 3 1 0/0 0/1 7.6
João Aurélio D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 68% 28 1 1 3/4 1/1 6.7
C. Labidi M 67 0 0 0 (0) 1 78% 9 5 1 0/0 3/2 6.7
Matheus Dias M 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 82% 38 0 1 0/1 2/1 6.7
Liziero M 90 0 0 0 (0) 3 88% 33 2 3 2/2 0/1 7.5
Paulinho Bóia F 85 0 0 1 (1) 1 59% 17 5 0 2/4 3/1 6.9
J. Ramírez F 85 0 0 1 (1) 0 70% 10 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
Pablo Ruan M 67 0 0 0 (0) 1 63% 8 1 0 0/1 1/1 6.5
Filipe Soares M 23 0 0 0 (0) 0 63% 8 2 0 0/0 0/1 6.9
Witi F 23 0 0 1 (0) 0 25% 4 1 0 1/1 0/1 6.6
Martim Watts M 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
Lucas João F 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.