Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Alverca had 7.8 days of rest, Rio Ave 6.9 and had to travel 274 km.
Away travel274 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Alverca43%
Draw28%
Rio Ave29%
Alverca44%
Draw27%
Rio Ave30%
Alverca43%
Draw28%
Rio Ave29%
Alverca36%
Draw29%
Rio Ave36%
Alverca44%
Draw27%
Rio Ave30%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 50
Team strength
Alverca
Rio Ave
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
38
AttackIn forecast
18
42
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaRio Ave
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.30
ShotsContext
9.00
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
39%
On target shareContext
41%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
63%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.50
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.80
BlocksContext
4.70
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
66%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
343
PassesContext
360
275
Accurate passesContext
295
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.80
FoulsContext
13.80
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.30
ShotsContext
9.00
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
39%
On target shareContext
41%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
63%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.50
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.80
BlocksContext
4.70
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
66%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
343
PassesContext
360
275
Accurate passesContext
295
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.80
FoulsContext
13.80
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel274 km584 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Oct | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 274 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 584 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 22 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
11Cedric Nuozzi
9M. Milovanović
18Lincoln
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
22K. Chamorro(G)
6N. Abbey
32J. Brabec
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
17M. Vrousai
80O. Pohlmann
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.80
Rio Ave · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Alverca | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 7.17 | 10.89 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 17% 1/6 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 5.50 | 5.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Alverca | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 7.17 | 10.89 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 17% 1/6 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 5.50 | 5.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.46league 5.15
Red cards0.34league 0.26
Cards 5+68%league 64%
Fouls29.2league 27.7
Penalties0.50league 0.46
Home wins50%league 37%
Alverca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L10 Aug 25A · Moreirense1–21
Rio Ave3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D27 Apr 24A · Vizela1–12
- L21 May 23A · Pacos Ferreira1–33
- D5 Sep 22A · Chaves1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
