Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Santa Clara. Alverca had 7.8 days of rest, Santa Clara 7.9 and had to travel 1,454 km.
Away travel1,454 kmRest days7.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alverca44%
Draw29%
Santa Clara28%
Alverca48%
Draw26%
Santa Clara26%
Alverca44%
Draw29%
Santa Clara28%
Alverca37%
Draw29%
Santa Clara34%
Alverca45%
Draw27%
Santa Clara28%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.86
- Matches 7
Team strength
Alverca
Santa Clara
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
38
AttackIn forecast
29
42
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaSanta Clara
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.77
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
73%
Scored inContext
55%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
8.73
ShotsContext
11.32
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
39%
On target shareContext
29%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
65%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.59
Shots allowedContext
9.27
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.76
4.27
BlocksContext
2.40
3.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
66%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
350
PassesContext
369
282
Accurate passesContext
298
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.86
FoulsContext
14.64
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.09
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
70%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.50
ShotsContext
11.20
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
39%
On target shareContext
24%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
65%
Box shareContext
51%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.90
Shots allowedContext
8.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
5.10
BlocksContext
2.63
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
64%
Save rateContext
63%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
339
PassesContext
363
270
Accurate passesContext
290
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.30
FoulsContext
16.70
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km439 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Santa Clara
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,454 km2,876 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Feb | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,454 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 439 km | 2,876 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
14S. Baseya
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
12Isaac James
18Lincoln
17Vasco Moreira
82Diogo Spencer
10Chiquinho
9M. Milovanović
20Figueiredo
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
23Sidney Lima
2Diogo Calila
35Serginho
8Pedro Ferreira
10Gabriel Silva
77Gustavo Klismahn
70Vinícius Lopes
39Gonçalo Paciência
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.36
Santa Clara · Away
0.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-6
- Scored
- 0.70
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Estoril | L 1–4 A | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Arouca | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–4 H | L 0–1 A |
| AVS | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 25 of 63 · 1.19 per game | 14 of 63 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Alverca wins0 draws1 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Sep 2025Santa Clara2–1Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.77 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 2.05 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 36% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 41% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 45% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Alverca | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.81 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.81 | 9.06 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.55 | 3.05 | |
| Match total | 5.05 | 6.23 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 12/22 | 86% 19/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Alverca | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.90 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.90 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 4.93
Red cards0.14league 0.28
Cards 5+43%league 59%
Fouls28.6league 27.0
Penalties0.86league 0.44
Home wins29%league 41%
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
Santa ClaraNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca22 games · scored 22 · conceded 37
1
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
9
6
76-90
Santa Clara22 games · scored 17 · conceded 28
6
3
0-15
5
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
4
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
