Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Santa Clara. Alverca had 6.8 days of rest, Santa Clara 5.9 and had to travel 1,454 km.
Away travel1,454 kmRest days6.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alverca40%
Draw27%
Santa Clara33%
Alverca42%
Draw26%
Santa Clara32%
Alverca40%
Draw27%
Santa Clara33%
Alverca33%
Draw27%
Santa Clara40%
Alverca40%
Draw27%
Santa Clara34%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDiogo Rosa
- Cards per match 6.4
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 7
Team strength
Alverca
Santa Clara
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
38
AttackIn forecast
29
42
DefenceIn forecast
53
29
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaSanta Clara
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
2.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
31%
On target shareContext
28%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
62%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.33
Shots allowedContext
9.67
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.50
BlocksContext
1.67
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
65%
Save rateContext
75%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
361
PassesContext
324
291
Accurate passesContext
252
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.60
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.33
FoulsContext
15.67
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.20
ShotsContext
11.10
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
36%
On target shareContext
26%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
61%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.56
12.10
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.88
BlocksContext
2.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
68%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
360
PassesContext
331
291
Accurate passesContext
262
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.10
FoulsContext
13.90
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
LDL
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 1 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 22 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug | 5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,454 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 3,123 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
12Isaac James
4Y. Bojang
14S. Baseya
55Francisco Chissumba
35Rayan Lucas
25Ian Luccas
2Zoubdi
22Figueiredo
7André Vidigal
9Vivaldo Semedo
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
2Diogo Calila
8José Tavares
6Pedro Ferreira
70Vinícius Lopes
20Tiago Ribeiro
99Sorriso
9Gonçalo Paciência
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Santa Clara · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Alverca wins1 draws1 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Feb 2026Alverca1–1Santa Clara
- 20 Sep 2025Santa Clara2–1Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.00 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Alverca | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.00 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Alverca | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 9.30 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.60 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Diogo Rosa Portugal · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.29league 4.12
Red cards0.14league 0.20
Cards 5+86%league 36%
Fouls27.1league 25.4
Penalties0.57league 0.32
Home wins71%league 44%
Alverca2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W24 Apr 26H · Arouca2–10
- W4 Jan 26H · Famalicao1–02
Santa Clara1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W6 Dec 25H · Casa Pia1–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca3 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Santa Clara3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
