Alverca vs Sporting CP – 22 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 22 · 18:00 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca 11th · 29 pts · 26 played DDDDD

1–4Full time

Sporting CP 3rd · 62 pts · 25 played DWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were clear favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alverca. Alverca had 8 days of rest, Sporting CP 15 and had to travel 22 km.

Away travel22 kmRest days8 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0

Alverca13%

Draw22%

Sporting CP64%

Expected goals 0.74 – 1.90

Alverca12%

Draw19%

Sporting CP68%

Expected goals 0.81 – 2.19

Alverca13%

Draw22%

Sporting CP64%

Expected goals 0.74 – 1.90

Alverca10%

Draw19%

Sporting CP71%

Expected goals 0.66 – 2.13

Alverca14%

Draw22%

Sporting CP64%

Expected goals 0.78 – 1.96

Over 2.5 49% Both score 45% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 97

Team strength

Alverca

Sporting CP

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

38 AttackIn forecast 75

42 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alverca

Sporting CP

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56

1.58 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.56

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.05

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.65

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

73% Scored inContext 100%

23% Clean sheetsContext 52%

9.23 ShotsContext 17.56

3.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.68

36% On target shareContext 38%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.88

64% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 15%

1.93 OffsidesContext 1.88

13.50 Shots allowedContext 7.84

4.48 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.91

4.04 BlocksContext 2.55

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.52

67% Save rateContext 82%

45% PossessionIn forecast 61%

358 PassesContext 522

288 Accurate passesContext 457

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.09

12.15 FoulsContext 12.40

13.65 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.19 Yellow cardsContext 2.32

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.12

This league season, per match · 26 and 25 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.66

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.90 ShotsContext 15.60

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

28% On target shareContext 35%

6.11 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

62% Box shareContext 75%

10% ConversionContext 14%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.25

14.20 Shots allowedContext 7.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

3.90 BlocksContext 2.86

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

69% Save rateContext 72%

46% PossessionIn forecast 59%

365 PassesContext 545

295 Accurate passesContext 476

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.90 FoulsContext 12.10

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alverca

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km590 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sporting CP

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel22 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alverca	Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar	15Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	22 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	590 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	13	12.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13André Gomes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 5Sergi Gómez 4Kaiky Naves

12Isaac James 18Lincoln 26Rhaldney 2Zoubdi

10Chiquinho 20Figueiredo

91Sandro Lima

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Rui Silva(G)

11Nuno Santos 25G. Inácio 72Eduardo Quaresma 22Iván Fresneda

5H. Morita 42M. Hjulmand

8Pote 17Trincão 10Geny Catamo

97L. Suárez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Sporting CP Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alverca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sporting CP+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Alverca · Home 1.46points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-4
Scored: 0.85
Conceded: 1.23

Sporting CP · Away 2.38points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 9-4-0
Scored: 2.15
Conceded: 0.77

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Alverca	Sporting CP
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 AL 0–4 H	D 1–1 A
AVS	D 0–0 HW 3–1 A	W 6–0 H
Guimaraes	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	W 4–1 A
Santa Clara	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	W 2–1 A
Tondela	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	W 3–0 A
Benfica	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Estrela	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	W 4–0 H
SC Braga	L 0–5 AL 0–3 H	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Moreirense	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	W 3–0 AW 3–0 H
Famalicao	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A
Estoril	L 1–4 A	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
FC Porto	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Arouca	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 AW 6–0 H
Nacional	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 HW 4–1 A
Casa Pia	W 2–0 A	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A
Rio Ave	D 1–1 H	W 4–0 H
Points	29 of 75 · 1.16 per game	59 of 72 · 2.46 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Alverca wins0 draws1 Sporting CP wins

Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

31 Oct 2025Sporting CP2–0Alverca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Alverca	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.56
Conceded per game	1.58	0.56
Match goals	2.58	3.12	2.65
Over 1.5	81%	92%
Over 2.5	50%	68%	49%
Over 3.5	23%	28%
Both teams scored	54%	48%	45%
Clean sheets	23%	52%
Failed to score	27%	0%
Games	26	25

	Alverca	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.20
Conceded per game	1.40	0.60
Match goals	2.40	2.80	2.65
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alverca	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	4.17	6.73
Corners conceded	4.56	2.91
Match total	8.73	9.64	9.27
Over 8.5	50% 9/18	73% 16/22
Over 9.5	50% 9/18	50% 11/22
Over 10.5	28% 5/18	32% 7/22
Cards
Cards	2.35	2.44
Opponent cards	2.50	2.88
Match total	4.85	5.32	5.13
Over 3.5	58% 15/26	64% 16/25
Over 4.5	38% 10/26	60% 15/25

	Alverca	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	8.22
Corners conceded	5.17	2.89
Match total	10.00	11.11	9.27
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.80
Opponent cards	2.30	2.70
Match total	4.20	5.50	5.13
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 97 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.49league 4.80

Red cards0.23league 0.26

Cards 5+47%league 58%

Fouls25.8league 27.0

Penalties0.26league 0.44

Home wins41%league 41%

Alverca2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L22 Dec 25H · FC Porto0–31
L24 Oct 25H · GIL Vicente0–43

Sporting CP7 with this referee

Record2-3-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

D10 May 25A · Benfica1–12
D7 Feb 25A · FC Porto1–16
W13 Sep 24A · Arouca3–00
L9 Dec 23A · Guimaraes2–32
D21 May 23H · Benfica2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.