Amed
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Amed. Amed had 7 days of rest, Besiktas 2.9 and had to travel 1,026 km.
Away travel1,026 kmRest days7 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Amed36%
Draw25%
Besiktas39%
Amed33%
Draw26%
Besiktas42%
Amed35%
Draw25%
Besiktas40%
Amed29%
Draw24%
Besiktas47%
Amed37%
Draw25%
Besiktas38%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Diyarbakır)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.55
- Matches 20
Team strength
Amed
Besiktas
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
38
AttackIn forecast
60
46
DefenceIn forecast
48
59
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AmedBesiktas
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
0.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.41
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.77
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.80
ShotsContext
16.25
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
30%
On target shareContext
37%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
56%
Box shareContext
60%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.75
9.00
Shots allowedContext
8.25
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.25
2.50
BlocksContext
4.33
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.25
71%
Save rateContext
56%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
418
PassesContext
473
349
Accurate passesContext
406
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.40
FoulsContext
16.00
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.25
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
0.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.41
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.80
ShotsContext
16.60
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
30%
On target shareContext
37%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
56%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
16%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.20
9.00
Shots allowedContext
9.40
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.40
2.50
BlocksContext
3.17
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.40
71%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
418
PassesContext
483
349
Accurate passesContext
415
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.40
FoulsContext
11.50
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.88
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Amed
WLWDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 10 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected
Besiktas
LWWWW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,026 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 79 · 12 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Amed |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,026 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 19.7 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Amed
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
17C. Meraş
4D. Bates
5L. Dellova
7E. Krasniqi
22R. Raveloson
8F. Soyalp
74Mohamed Khalil
91D. Sabi'a
10S. Ballet
99G. Orban
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz
35Tiago Djaló
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
29I. Fakili
10O. Kökçü
15Junior Olaitan
17E. Poku
28D. Vlahović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Amed
Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Amed+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Besiktas-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Amed · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Besiktas · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Amed | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Amed | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Amed | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.70 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Amed | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 7.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 11.75 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.20 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Amed | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 7.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 11.38 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 3.79
Red cards0.20league 0.15
Cards 5+55%league 40%
Fouls25.6league 25.2
Penalties0.55league 0.33
Home wins60%league 48%
AmedNo previous matches with this referee.
Besiktas2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D14 Dec 25A · Trabzonspor3–36
- W29 Sep 25H · Kocaelispor3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Amed5 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Besiktas5 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Amed5 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 21 · conceded 6
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
