Amed
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Amed35.3%fair odds 2.83
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.84
Besiktas38.6%fair odds 2.59
Expected goals1.41 – 1.48total 2.89
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Besiktas
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Amed ↓ · Besiktas → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Amed goals, columns Besiktas goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.19
- 1–28.6%11.64
- 2–18.2%12.25
- 0–17.6%13.11
- 1–07.2%13.86
- 0–06.2%16.18
- 0–26.1%16.37
- 2–26.0%16.54
- 2–05.5%18.15
- 1–34.2%23.56
Winning margin
6.1%
Amed by 3+
fair 16.49
10.5%
Amed by 2
fair 9.54
18.8%
Amed by 1
fair 5.33
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.84
19.8%
Besiktas by 1
fair 5.05
11.6%
Besiktas by 2
fair 8.60
7.2%
Besiktas by 3+
fair 13.83
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Amed goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Besiktas goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amed win | 35.3% | 35.9% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Besiktas win | 38.6% | 37.6% | +1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 53.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 57.7% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Amed | 1.41 | 1.39 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Besiktas | 1.48 | 1.43 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Amed win35.3%2.83
- Draw26.0%3.84
- Besiktas win38.6%2.59
- Double chance Amed or draw61.4%1.63
- Double chance Amed or Besiktas74.0%1.35
- Double chance Besiktas or draw64.7%1.55
- Draw no bet Amed47.7%2.09
- Draw no bet Besiktas52.3%1.91
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.579.0%1.27
- Over 2.555.1%1.81
- Over 3.532.8%3.05
- Over 4.516.6%6.01
- Under 1.521.0%4.76
- Under 2.544.9%2.23
- Under 3.567.2%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.70
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- Amed win and yes18.8%5.33
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Besiktas win and yes20.3%4.92
Team goals
- Amed over 0.575.5%1.32
- Amed over 1.541.1%2.44
- Amed over 2.516.8%5.94
- Besiktas over 0.577.3%1.29
- Besiktas over 1.543.6%2.29
- Besiktas over 2.518.7%5.36
- Amed clean sheet22.7%4.40
- Besiktas clean sheet24.5%4.08
- Amed win to nil16.5%6.04
- Besiktas win to nil18.3%5.46
Handicap
- Amed −1.516.6%6.04
- Amed −2.56.1%16.49
- Besiktas +1.583.4%1.20
- Besiktas +2.593.9%1.06
- Besiktas −1.518.9%5.30
- Amed +1.581.1%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored52
Favourite won46.2%
Avg chance given to result39.1%
1X2 Brier0.618
Over 2.5 called right57.7%
BTTS called right44.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.6% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 22 | 44.9% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 55.2% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 75.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 52 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5935 | 0.5878 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.1% | 40.7% |
| Favourite won | 53.8% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 52 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.