Amed
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Amed44.0%fair odds 2.27
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
Erzurumspor FK29.7%fair odds 3.37
Expected goals1.54 – 1.23total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Erzurumspor FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Amed ↓ · Erzurumspor FK → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Amed goals, columns Erzurumspor FK goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%8.01
- 2–19.2%10.92
- 1–09.0%11.09
- 2–07.4%13.43
- 1–27.3%13.73
- 0–17.0%14.20
- 0–06.9%14.56
- 2–25.6%17.77
- 0–24.7%21.21
- 3–14.7%21.22
Winning margin
9.0%
Amed by 3+
fair 11.11
13.4%
Amed by 2
fair 7.44
21.6%
Amed by 1
fair 4.64
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
17.0%
Erzurumspor FK by 1
fair 5.87
8.5%
Erzurumspor FK by 2
fair 11.76
4.1%
Erzurumspor FK by 3+
fair 24.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Amed goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Erzurumspor FK goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amed win | 44.0% | 44.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Erzurumspor FK win | 29.7% | 29.7% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 52.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 56.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Expected goals Amed | 1.54 | 1.54 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Erzurumspor FK | 1.23 | 1.23 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Amed win44.0%2.27
- Draw26.3%3.80
- Erzurumspor FK win29.7%3.37
- Double chance Amed or draw70.3%1.42
- Double chance Amed or Erzurumspor FK73.7%1.36
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or draw56.0%1.79
- Draw no bet Amed59.7%1.67
- Draw no bet Erzurumspor FK40.3%2.48
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.1%1.30
- Over 2.552.4%1.91
- Over 3.530.2%3.31
- Over 4.514.8%6.74
- Under 1.522.9%4.36
- Under 2.547.6%2.10
- Under 3.569.8%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.3%1.78
- No43.7%2.29
- Yes and over 2.543.8%2.28
- Amed win and yes21.6%4.63
- Draw and yes19.4%5.14
- Erzurumspor FK win and yes15.2%6.57
Team goals
- Amed over 0.578.7%1.27
- Amed over 1.545.7%2.19
- Amed over 2.520.2%4.94
- Erzurumspor FK over 0.570.7%1.41
- Erzurumspor FK over 1.534.8%2.87
- Erzurumspor FK over 2.512.7%7.88
- Amed clean sheet29.3%3.42
- Erzurumspor FK clean sheet21.3%4.69
- Amed win to nil22.4%4.47
- Erzurumspor FK win to nil14.5%6.91
Handicap
- Amed −1.522.4%4.46
- Amed −2.59.0%11.11
- Erzurumspor FK +1.577.6%1.29
- Erzurumspor FK +2.591.0%1.10
- Erzurumspor FK −1.512.7%7.90
- Amed +1.587.3%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored6
Favourite won16.7%
Avg chance given to result30.2%
1X2 Brier0.813
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right66.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 3 | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.1% | 33.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 6 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 6 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.