Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Anderlecht
5th · 44 pts · 29 played
DWWDL
First leg2–0
2–3Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 28 pts · 29 played
LWDLL
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cercle Brugge. Anderlecht had 7 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 7 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Anderlecht55%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge21%
Anderlecht56%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge20%
Anderlecht55%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge21%
Anderlecht48%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge27%
Anderlecht55%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge22%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 27
Team strength
AnderlechtCercle Brugge
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
37
AttackIn forecast
24
52
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtCercle Brugge
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
69%
Scored inContext
76%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
14.55
ShotsContext
13.24
4.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.59
31%
On target shareContext
32%
8.62
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
60%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.04
OffsidesContext
2.88
12.24
Shots allowedContext
13.66
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.07
BlocksContext
3.54
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.48
64%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
426
PassesContext
352
346
Accurate passesContext
266
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.90
FoulsContext
10.52
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.28
2.66
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.30
ShotsContext
13.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
29%
On target shareContext
34%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
60%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.70
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.10
Shots allowedContext
14.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.30
BlocksContext
3.60
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
62%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
414
PassesContext
303
338
Accurate passesContext
219
82%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.75
15.10
FoulsContext
9.90
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 123 | 138.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
93M. Diarra
15M. Ilić
54K. Sardella
74N. De Cat
78A. Tajaouart
9M. CvetkoviÄ
29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef
11T. Hazard
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
12Valy Konaté
24Geoffrey Kondo
5Emmanuel Kakou
20Flávio Nazinho
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
10O. Diakité
13D. Vanzeir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
2.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-2
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 0.79
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.43points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-4
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| OH Leuven | W 5–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 4–2 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Genk | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Dender | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Gent | L 2–4 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AL 2–4 H |
| Charleroi | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 4–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Antwerp | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–4 HD 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 41 of 84 · 1.46 per game | 28 of 84 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Anderlecht wins0 draws0 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 3 Aug 2025Cercle Brugge0–2Anderlecht
- 27 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–0Cercle Brugge
- 5 Nov 2023Cercle Brugge0–3Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.66 | 2.79 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 48% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 62% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 24% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Anderlecht | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.07 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.72 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 10.79 | 10.04 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 25/29 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 20/29 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 59% 17/29 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.79 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.52 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 5.31 | 3.86 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 21/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 66% 19/29 | 28% 8/29 | |
| Anderlecht | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 12.20 | 9.70 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.30 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.84
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+22%league 40%
Fouls22.9league 22.7
Penalties0.33league 0.32
Home wins37%league 41%
Anderlecht3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Nov 25H · KV Mechelen3–11
- D26 Sep 25A · OH Leuven1–13
- W27 Jul 25H · KVC Westerlo5–24
Cercle Brugge2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L31 Jan 26H · Antwerp0–42
- L8 Nov 25H · OH Leuven1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht29 games · scored 41 · conceded 36
6
5
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
4
31-45
9
6
46-60
8
2
61-75
7
13
76-90
Cercle Brugge29 games · scored 36 · conceded 45
4
4
0-15
4
9
16-30
13
10
31-45
4
11
46-60
4
5
61-75
7
6
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
7
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
