Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Apr 24 · 16:00 Lotto Park, Brussel
Anderlecht 5th · 16 pts · 8 played
First leg2–1 VS— Compare
Cercle Brugge 17th · 3 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel88 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Anderlecht—%
Draw—%
Cercle Brugge—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussel)

Forecast from 9 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Anderlecht and Cercle Brugge. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AnderlechtCercle Brugge
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
37 AttackIn forecast 24
52 DefenceIn forecast 28
59 Form indexContext 6
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Cercle Brugge

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AnderlechtCercle Brugge
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.74
0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.61
63% Scored inContext 63%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.00 ShotsContext 14.13
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
32% On target shareContext 28%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.71
61% Box shareContext 70%
8% ConversionContext 8%
1.43 OffsidesContext 1.50
9.88 Shots allowedContext 12.63
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38
2.00 BlocksContext 3.88
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
76% Save rateContext 54%
62% PossessionIn forecast 45%
560 PassesContext 370
482 Accurate passesContext 291
86% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.61
12.38 FoulsContext 12.38
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.43
70% Scored inContext 70%
60% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.88 ShotsContext 13.80
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
38% On target shareContext 30%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 10.11
61% Box shareContext 69%
8% ConversionContext 9%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.90
11.25 Shots allowedContext 12.80
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
1.90 BlocksContext 3.90
3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
81% Save rateContext 52%
60% PossessionIn forecast 46%
533 PassesContext 370
459 Accurate passesContext 292
86% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.64
12.90 FoulsContext 12.30
12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts
Cercle Brugge
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Anderlecht1–21.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Charleroi2–30.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · OH Leuven1–11.5 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Gent0–31.3 xPts
  • L29 AugH · Lommel United0–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Anderlecht Cercle Brugge
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 17 Apr7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 17 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways99 km173 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković
Cercle Brugge Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Anderlecht (H) 1–2, 10 Oct
1G. Coucke(G)
12Valy Konaté 24Geoffrey Kondo 5Emmanuel Kakou 15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen 18L. Le Roux
30B. Akinsola 20A. Manneh 11C. Herrmann
9S. Ngoura

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Anderlecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Cercle Brugge Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25
Cercle Brugge · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

4 Anderlecht wins0 draws1 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game2.20 – 0.80 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 0%
  • 10 Oct 2026Cercle Brugge1–2Anderlecht
  • 22 Mar 2026Anderlecht2–3Cercle Brugge
  • 3 Aug 2025Cercle Brugge0–2Anderlecht
  • 27 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–0Cercle Brugge
  • 5 Nov 2023Cercle Brugge0–3Anderlecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AnderlechtCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 1.131.13
Conceded per game 0.752.00
Match goals 1.883.13
Over 1.5 50%75%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 0%38%
Both teams scored 25%63%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 38%38%
Games88
AnderlechtCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 1.401.30
Conceded per game 0.702.10
Match goals 2.103.40
Over 1.5 60%80%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 20%70%
Clean sheets 60%0%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AnderlechtCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won6.637.29
Corners conceded3.134.57
Match total9.7611.8610.01
Over 8.563% 5/871% 5/7
Over 9.538% 3/871% 5/7
Over 10.538% 3/871% 5/7
Cards
Cards2.131.25
Opponent cards1.381.63
Match total3.512.883.36
Over 3.550% 4/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
AnderlechtCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won5.406.67
Corners conceded3.805.00
Match total9.2011.6710.01
Over 8.560% 6/1078% 7/9
Over 9.540% 4/1078% 7/9
Over 10.510% 1/1078% 7/9
Cards
Cards2.201.20
Opponent cards1.801.50
Match total4.002.703.36
Over 3.560% 6/1020% 2/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Anderlecht8 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Cercle Brugge8 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 4 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
1 2 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United St. Truiden Apr 2416:00 OH Leuven SK Beveren Apr 2416:00 Anderlecht Cercle Brugge Apr 2416:00 Club Brugge KV Union St. Gilloise Apr 2416:00 Zulte Waregem KV Mechelen Apr 2416:00 Kortrijk KVC Westerlo Apr 2416:00 Antwerp Gent Apr 2416:00 Genk Charleroi Apr 2416:00 RAAL La Louvière Standard Liege Apr 2416:00