Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Anderlecht
4th · 35 pts · 21 played
LWDLL
First leg2–0
0–0Full time
Dender
16th · 16 pts · 21 played
WLLDW
Our take
Anderlecht were clear favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 21). Anderlecht had 7.2 days of rest, Dender 7.1 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days7.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Anderlecht61%
Draw22%
Dender17%
Anderlecht60%
Draw23%
Dender17%
Anderlecht61%
Draw22%
Dender17%
Anderlecht53%
Draw24%
Dender22%
Anderlecht61%
Draw22%
Dender17%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.68
- Matches 25
Team strength
AnderlechtDender
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
37
AttackIn forecast
15
52
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtDender
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
81%
Scored inContext
62%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.57
ShotsContext
9.86
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.48
32%
On target shareContext
35%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
61%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.12
OffsidesContext
2.28
11.67
Shots allowedContext
13.86
3.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.86
BlocksContext
3.47
2.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
62%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
430
PassesContext
382
350
Accurate passesContext
289
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.19
FoulsContext
10.81
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.48
2.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.60
ShotsContext
10.90
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
29%
On target shareContext
36%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
62%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.80
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
2.70
BlocksContext
3.50
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
62%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
414
PassesContext
353
336
Accurate passesContext
259
81%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.60
FoulsContext
11.70
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel20 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
58Y. Özcan
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
74N. De Cat
13N. Saliba
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
91A. Bertaccini
14D. Sikan
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
7B. Goncalves
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
88F. Ferraro
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
9David Toševski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
2.09points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-2
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 0.91
Dender · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | L 2–4 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Charleroi | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Antwerp | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 H | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 32 of 60 · 1.60 per game | 16 of 60 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins0 draws0 Dender wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Dender0–2Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.43 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 48% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 57% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 38% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Anderlecht | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 10.43 | 8.05 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 17/21 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 14/21 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 11/21 | 10% 2/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 1.38 | |
| Match total | 5.15 | 3.33 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 15/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 14/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Anderlecht | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 8.78 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.83
Red cards0.20league 0.18
Cards 5+36%league 40%
Fouls24.4league 22.9
Penalties0.68league 0.28
Home wins60%league 41%
Anderlecht2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W3 Aug 25A · Cercle Brugge2–02
- D1 Feb 24A · KV Mechelen2–21
Dender2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W23 Nov 25A · Antwerp2–14
- L30 Aug 25A · Charleroi1–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht21 games · scored 30 · conceded 26
6
4
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
9
76-90
Dender21 games · scored 17 · conceded 34
4
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
9
61-75
5
8
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
