Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Anderlecht
4th · 35 pts · 21 played
LWDLL
First leg2–0
0–0Full time
Dender
16th · 16 pts · 21 played
WLLDW
Anderlecht60.9%fair odds 1.64
Draw22.1%fair odds 4.52
Dender16.9%fair odds 5.90
Expected goals2.00 – 0.96total 2.96
Likeliest score1–110.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Anderlecht ↓ · Dender → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Anderlecht goals, columns Dender goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%9.55
- 2–010.3%9.68
- 2–110.0%10.05
- 1–09.8%10.21
- 3–06.9%14.52
- 3–16.6%15.07
- 0–05.7%17.58
- 2–24.8%20.86
- 1–24.8%20.87
- 0–14.4%22.50
Winning margin
18.6%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 5.37
18.8%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 5.32
23.5%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 4.25
22.1%
Draw
fair 4.52
11.0%
Dender by 1
fair 9.05
4.4%
Dender by 2
fair 22.96
1.5%
Dender by 3+
fair 64.70
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Anderlecht goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Dender goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 60.9% | 60.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.2% | -0.1 pp |
| Dender win | 16.9% | 17.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 57.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.0% | 54.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Dender | 0.96 | 0.97 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Anderlecht win60.9%1.64
- Draw22.1%4.52
- Dender win16.9%5.90
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw83.1%1.20
- Double chance Anderlecht or Dender77.9%1.28
- Double chance Dender or draw39.1%2.56
- Draw no bet Anderlecht78.2%1.28
- Draw no bet Dender21.8%4.60
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.556.9%1.76
- Over 3.534.5%2.90
- Over 4.517.9%5.59
- Under 1.519.9%5.02
- Under 2.543.1%2.32
- Under 3.565.5%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes54.0%1.85
- No46.0%2.17
- Yes and over 2.543.5%2.30
- Anderlecht win and yes28.5%3.51
- Draw and yes16.4%6.09
- Dender win and yes9.1%10.97
Team goals
- Anderlecht over 0.586.5%1.16
- Anderlecht over 1.559.4%1.68
- Anderlecht over 2.532.4%3.09
- Dender over 0.561.8%1.62
- Dender over 1.525.1%3.99
- Dender over 2.57.4%13.57
- Anderlecht clean sheet38.2%2.62
- Dender clean sheet13.5%7.39
- Anderlecht win to nil32.5%3.08
- Dender win to nil7.8%12.76
Handicap
- Anderlecht −1.537.4%2.67
- Anderlecht −2.518.6%5.37
- Dender +1.562.6%1.60
- Dender +2.581.4%1.23
- Dender −1.55.9%16.95
- Anderlecht +1.594.1%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored174
Favourite won44.3%
Avg chance given to result37.4%
1X2 Brier0.632
Over 2.5 called right52.3%
BTTS called right52.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.1% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.9% | 34.5% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 54.6% | 56.4% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 64.7% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 136 of 174 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6391 | 0.6343 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.2% | 37.9% |
| Favourite won | 43.4% | 41.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 136 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Club Brugge KV 4–3 Zulte Waregem67·20·13
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- ✗Standard Liege 0–4 Gent36·28·36
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- ✓Charleroi 2–0 Standard Liege40·28·32
- ✗Dender 1–0 Antwerp29·27·44
- ✓Gent 4–2 Anderlecht37·27·36
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 174 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.