Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Anderlecht39.6%fair odds 2.53
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.93
Genk35.0%fair odds 2.86
Expected goals1.55 – 1.45total 3.00
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Anderlecht ↓ · Genk → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Anderlecht goals, columns Genk goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.50
- 2–18.7%11.52
- 1–28.1%12.35
- 1–07.1%14.05
- 0–16.6%15.16
- 2–26.3%15.89
- 2–06.0%16.69
- 0–05.6%18.01
- 0–25.2%19.19
- 3–14.5%22.23
Winning margin
7.9%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 12.71
12.0%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 8.36
19.7%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 5.06
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.93
18.4%
Genk by 1
fair 5.44
10.4%
Genk by 2
fair 9.61
6.2%
Genk by 3+
fair 16.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Anderlecht goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Genk goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 39.6% | 39.2% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Genk win | 35.0% | 34.9% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 56.0% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.9% | 59.6% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 1.55 | 1.51 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.45 | 1.42 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Anderlecht win39.6%2.53
- Draw25.4%3.93
- Genk win35.0%2.86
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw65.0%1.54
- Double chance Anderlecht or Genk74.6%1.34
- Double chance Genk or draw60.4%1.66
- Draw no bet Anderlecht53.1%1.88
- Draw no bet Genk46.9%2.13
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.7%1.24
- Over 2.557.8%1.73
- Over 3.535.4%2.83
- Over 4.518.5%5.39
- Under 1.519.3%5.19
- Under 2.542.2%2.37
- Under 3.564.6%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes60.9%1.64
- No39.1%2.56
- Yes and over 2.549.2%2.03
- Anderlecht win and yes21.7%4.62
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Genk win and yes19.4%5.15
Team goals
- Anderlecht over 0.578.9%1.27
- Anderlecht over 1.546.0%2.17
- Anderlecht over 2.520.5%4.88
- Genk over 0.576.5%1.31
- Genk over 1.542.5%2.35
- Genk over 2.517.9%5.60
- Anderlecht clean sheet23.5%4.26
- Genk clean sheet21.1%4.73
- Anderlecht win to nil17.9%5.58
- Genk win to nil15.6%6.42
Handicap
- Anderlecht −1.519.8%5.04
- Anderlecht −2.57.9%12.71
- Genk +1.580.2%1.25
- Genk +2.592.1%1.09
- Genk −1.516.6%6.02
- Anderlecht +1.583.4%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored43
Favourite won65.1%
Avg chance given to result46.0%
1X2 Brier0.490
Over 2.5 called right60.5%
BTTS called right46.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.5% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 45.5% | 47.1% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.6% | 84.6% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 64.8% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 43 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4935 | 0.5117 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.2% | 44.3% |
| Favourite won | 68.4% | 68.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 43 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.