Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genk. Anderlecht had 2.9 days of rest, Genk 8.9 and had to travel 82 km.
Away travel82 kmRest days2.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
Anderlecht40%
Draw24%
Genk36%
Anderlecht43%
Draw26%
Genk31%
Anderlecht40%
Draw24%
Genk36%
Anderlecht33%
Draw24%
Genk43%
Anderlecht40%
Draw25%
Genk36%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 40
Team strength
Anderlecht
Genk
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
37
AttackIn forecast
46
52
DefenceIn forecast
50
41
Form indexContext
50
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtGenk
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
2.28
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-1.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
50%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.00
ShotsContext
13.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
28%
On target shareContext
44%
12.25
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
71%
Box shareContext
80%
4%
ConversionContext
22%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
1.67
BlocksContext
4.50
1.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
54%
Save rateContext
50%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
560
PassesContext
472
472
Accurate passesContext
403
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.75
FoulsContext
13.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.60
ShotsContext
17.30
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
28%
On target shareContext
35%
12.25
Shots in the boxContext
12.70
71%
Box shareContext
75%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.67
8.40
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
2.00
BlocksContext
4.20
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
56%
Save rateContext
73%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
560
PassesContext
465
472
Accurate passesContext
397
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.09
14.50
FoulsContext
12.20
12.13
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
WLLW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Genk
LWDW
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel82 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 3 Sep | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 28 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 82 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 7 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
27L. Pétrot
4G. Biancone
79A. Maamar
11O. Antman
55M. Kana
30Ilias Koutsoupias
53N. Cobiella
14D. Sikan
21T. Bentayeb
Genk
Confirmed XI
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
6M. Smets
20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
30A. Yokoyama
11Jeppe Erenbjerg
10J. Ito
17R. Durosinmi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Genk · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins2 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 8 Feb 2026Genk2–0Anderlecht
- 14 Sep 2025Anderlecht1–1Genk
- 23 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–1Genk
- 3 Sep 2023Genk1–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Anderlecht | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.75 | 10.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Anderlecht | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.86 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.57 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 10.30 | 10.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.10 | 2.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 2.77
Red cards0.18league 0.14
Cards 5+30%league 21%
Fouls20.4league 22.0
Penalties0.33league 0.28
Home wins38%league 47%
Anderlecht3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 May 26H · KV Mechelen2–20
- W23 Nov 25A · RAAL La Louvière1–03
- W5 Nov 23A · Cercle Brugge3–03
Genk3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W13 Feb 26A · KV Mechelen3–23
- D9 Nov 25A · Gent1–11
- W22 Oct 23H · KV Mechelen4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht4 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Genk4 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
