Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 33). Anderlecht had 8 days of rest, KV Mechelen 7.1 and had to travel 21 km.
Away travel21 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Anderlecht52%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen23%
Anderlecht51%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen23%
Anderlecht52%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen23%
Anderlecht44%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen29%
Anderlecht51%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 14
Team strength
Anderlecht
KV Mechelen
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
37
AttackIn forecast
18
52
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtKV Mechelen
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
75%
Scored inContext
92%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.92
4.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
34%
On target shareContext
41%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.82
60%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.25
Shots allowedContext
15.17
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
3.08
BlocksContext
4.67
2.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.45
63%
Save rateContext
93%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
448
PassesContext
377
365
Accurate passesContext
308
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.94
14.00
FoulsContext
9.42
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
10.92
2.42
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.60
ShotsContext
11.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
34%
On target shareContext
41%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
60%
Box shareContext
68%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.57
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.10
BlocksContext
4.20
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
70%
Save rateContext
95%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
452
PassesContext
377
372
Accurate passesContext
307
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.96
15.20
FoulsContext
9.40
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel21 km64 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Oct | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 21 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 64 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
7I. Camara
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
9M. CvetkoviÄ
91A. Bertaccini
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
4Gora Diouf
2R. Halhal
7T. Koudou
3José Marsà
29D. Salifou
6F. Hammar
38B. Antonio
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
17Mathis Servais
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
KV Mechelen · Away
1.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| St. Truiden | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Gent | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Dender | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 5–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 18 of 30 · 1.80 per game | 14 of 30 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins1 draws0 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Feb 2024KV Mechelen2–2Anderlecht
- 7 Oct 2023Anderlecht3–1KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 2.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 42% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 75% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Anderlecht | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.92 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.92 | 11.50 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 10/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.84 | 3.75 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 8/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Anderlecht | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 11.80 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.50 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 3.84
Red cards0.07league 0.20
Cards 5+43%league 41%
Fouls24.9league 23.3
Penalties0.21league 0.28
Home wins36%league 42%
Anderlecht2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Sep 25A · OH Leuven1–13
- W27 Jul 25H · KVC Westerlo5–24
KV Mechelen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Feb 24A · AS Eupen1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht12 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
KV Mechelen12 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
7
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
