Anderlecht vs OH Leuven – 28 Feb 2026

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Feb 28 · 19:45 Lotto Park, Brussel

Anderlecht 5th · 40 pts · 26 played DLLDW

First leg1–1 5–1Full time

OH Leuven 13th · 28 pts · 26 played DDWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Anderlecht were slight favourites.

Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for OH Leuven. Anderlecht had 6.1 days of rest, OH Leuven 7.1 and had to travel 24 km.

Away travel24 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

Anderlecht51%

Draw24%

OH Leuven25%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.22

Anderlecht55%

Draw25%

OH Leuven21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Anderlecht51%

Draw24%

OH Leuven25%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.22

Anderlecht43%

Draw25%

OH Leuven32%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.37

Anderlecht50%

Draw24%

OH Leuven26%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.24

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brussel)

No weather data yet

RefereeLothar D'hondt

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 41

Team strength

Anderlecht

OH Leuven

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

43 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

37 AttackIn forecast 17

52 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Anderlecht

OH Leuven

1.31 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.08

1.23 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.42

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

69% Scored inContext 69%

38% Clean sheetsContext 23%

14.65 ShotsContext 13.23

4.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

31% On target shareContext 32%

8.77 Shots in the boxContext 8.84

60% Box shareContext 67%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.18 OffsidesContext 1.84

12.12 Shots allowedContext 13.12

3.96 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.81

3.15 BlocksContext 3.48

2.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

63% Save rateContext 69%

54% PossessionIn forecast 45%

433 PassesContext 332

352 Accurate passesContext 255

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.74

13.65 FoulsContext 15.38

11.15 Fouls sufferedContext 11.12

2.42 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.53

50% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.70 ShotsContext 15.50

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

28% On target shareContext 30%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

62% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 7%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.10

14.60 Shots allowedContext 14.10

5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.80 BlocksContext 4.40

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

60% Save rateContext 72%

56% PossessionIn forecast 46%

430 PassesContext 339

350 Accurate passesContext 258

82% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.80

14.00 FoulsContext 14.10

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km130 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

OH Leuven

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel24 km220 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Anderlecht	OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Feb	7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	24 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	130 km	220 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.7	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26C. Coosemans(G)

6H. Augustinsson 93M. Diarra 15M. Ilić 7I. Camara

24E. Llansana 13N. Saliba

9M. CvetkoviÄ 74N. De Cat 83T. Degreef

11T. Hazard

OH Leuven Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Prévot(G)

30T. Akimoto 34R. Nyakossi 28E. Pletinckx

14H. Teklab 4B. Verstraete 24Ł. Łakomy 27Óscar Gil

7T. Verlinden 10Y. Maziz

19C. Ikwuemesi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Anderlecht Absences are shown before kick-off

OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
OH Leuven+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home 1.92points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-2
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 0.77

OH Leuven · Away 1.08points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-7
Scored: 0.85
Conceded: 1.54

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Anderlecht	OH Leuven
Zulte Waregem	W 4–2 AL 2–3 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
RAAL La Louvière	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Genk	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Standard Liege	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Dender	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Gent	L 2–4 AW 1–0 H	W 3–1 AW 4–0 H
Charleroi	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Antwerp	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	L 1–3 A
St. Truiden	W 2–1 HD 2–2 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
KVC Westerlo	L 0–4 AW 5–2 H	L 0–2 A
Union St. Gilloise	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A	D 0–0 HL 0–5 A
Club Brugge KV	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
KV Mechelen	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A
Cercle Brugge	W 2–0 A	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Points	39 of 75 · 1.56 per game	27 of 75 · 1.08 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Anderlecht wins2 draws0 OH Leuven wins

Goals per game2.33 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

26 Sep 2025OH Leuven1–1Anderlecht
21 Jan 2024OH Leuven1–1Anderlecht
28 Oct 2023Anderlecht5–1OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Anderlecht	OH Leuven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.31	1.08
Conceded per game	1.23	1.42
Match goals	2.54	2.50	3.03
Over 1.5	65%	73%
Over 2.5	38%	50%	58%
Over 3.5	31%	27%
Both teams scored	42%	54%	60%
Clean sheets	38%	23%
Failed to score	31%	31%
Games	26	26

	Anderlecht	OH Leuven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.90	1.10
Match goals	3.00	2.20	3.03
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Anderlecht	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	6.19	4.80
Corners conceded	4.42	5.64
Match total	10.61	10.44	9.83
Over 8.5	85% 22/26	64% 16/25
Over 9.5	69% 18/26	60% 15/25
Over 10.5	58% 15/26	56% 14/25
Cards
Cards	2.54	3.04
Opponent cards	2.54	2.31
Match total	5.08	5.35	4.08
Over 3.5	69% 18/26	77% 20/26
Over 4.5	65% 17/26	58% 15/26

	Anderlecht	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	5.40
Corners conceded	5.40	6.50
Match total	11.70	11.90	9.83
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.50
Match total	5.30	5.50	4.08
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Lothar D'hondt 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.86

Red cards0.32league 0.19

Cards 5+34%league 40%

Fouls24.5league 22.8

Penalties0.29league 0.31

Home wins41%league 41%

Anderlecht5 with this referee

Record4-1-0 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W13 Dec 25H · St. Truiden2–14
D14 Sep 25H · Genk1–13
W27 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge2–01
W1 Dec 23A · KVC Westerlo3–10
W27 Aug 23H · Charleroi2–10

OH Leuven4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L5 Oct 25A · KVC Westerlo0–22
L15 Aug 25H · Genk1–22
D24 Feb 24A · RWDM1–13
L30 Sep 23H · Standard Liege1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.