Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Anderlecht
6th · 36 pts · 24 played
LLDLL
First leg1–0
0–0Full time
RAAL La Louvière
15th · 24 pts · 24 played
DWLDL
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 24). Anderlecht usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Anderlecht had 7.2 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 7.1 and had to travel 42 km.
Away travel42 kmRest days7.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Anderlecht53%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière21%
Anderlecht54%
Draw25%
RAAL La Louvière22%
Anderlecht53%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière21%
Anderlecht46%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière27%
Anderlecht52%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière22%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.63
- Matches 27
Team strength
AnderlechtRAAL La Louvière
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
37
AttackIn forecast
15
52
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtRAAL La Louvière
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
71%
Scored inContext
63%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.58
ShotsContext
9.21
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
31%
On target shareContext
29%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
61%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.71
Shots allowedContext
11.88
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.74
2.92
BlocksContext
3.05
2.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.61
63%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
432
PassesContext
269
351
Accurate passesContext
193
81%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.67
FoulsContext
11.13
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.42
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.10
ShotsContext
10.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
28%
On target shareContext
31%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
64%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.80
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.90
BlocksContext
3.22
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
61%
Save rateContext
74%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
425
PassesContext
310
345
Accurate passesContext
232
81%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.20
FoulsContext
10.30
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km164 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RAAL La Louvière
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel42 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
RAAL La Louvière |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 42 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 164 km | 84 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
79A. Maamar
15M. Ilić
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
74N. De Cat
24E. Llansana
91A. Bertaccini
10Y. Verschaeren
83T. Degreef
11T. Hazard
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
13M. Maisonneuve
99Y. Okou
4Wagane Faye
3N. Gillot
5T. Lutonda
15S. Lahssaini
11J. Liongola
23J. Ito
7P. Fall
22J. Afriyie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
2.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.83
RAAL La Louvière · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.58
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Dender | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Gent | L 2–4 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Charleroi | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 33 of 69 · 1.43 per game | 24 of 69 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Anderlecht wins0 draws0 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 23 Nov 2025RAAL La Louvière0–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.04 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 46% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 54% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 38% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Anderlecht | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.42 | 4.08 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 8.41 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 20/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 17/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 14/24 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.63 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.58 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 3.41 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 17/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 16/24 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Anderlecht | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 10.10 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.20 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.91
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+37%league 41%
Fouls24.5league 22.9
Penalties0.63league 0.30
Home wins56%league 40%
Anderlecht3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D25 Jan 26H · Dender0–02
- W3 Aug 25A · Cercle Brugge2–02
- D1 Feb 24A · KV Mechelen2–21
RAAL La Louvière2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D13 Dec 25A · Zulte Waregem2–22
- W20 Sep 25A · OH Leuven2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht24 games · scored 30 · conceded 30
6
4
0-15
4
6
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
5
10
76-90
RAAL La Louvière24 games · scored 21 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
8
10
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
