Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Anderlecht
6th · 36 pts · 24 played
LLDLL
First leg1–0
0–0Full time
RAAL La Louvière
15th · 24 pts · 24 played
DWLDL
Anderlecht53.0%fair odds 1.89
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.85
RAAL La Louvière21.0%fair odds 4.76
Expected goals1.63 – 0.93total 2.56
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Anderlecht ↓ · RAAL La Louvière → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Anderlecht goals, columns RAAL La Louvière goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.10
- 1–011.9%8.38
- 2–010.2%9.79
- 2–19.6%10.47
- 0–08.3%12.01
- 0–16.6%15.19
- 3–05.5%18.03
- 1–25.5%18.24
- 3–15.2%19.29
- 2–24.5%22.40
Winning margin
12.3%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 8.13
16.5%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 6.06
24.2%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 4.13
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.85
13.6%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 7.33
5.4%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 18.40
1.9%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 52.27
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Anderlecht goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
RAAL La Louvière goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 53.0% | 52.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 25.8% | +0.2 pp |
| RAAL La Louvière win | 21.0% | 21.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 48.8% | -1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.4% | 51.0% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 1.63 | 1.65 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 0.93 | 0.98 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Anderlecht win53.0%1.89
- Draw26.0%3.85
- RAAL La Louvière win21.0%4.76
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw79.0%1.27
- Double chance Anderlecht or RAAL La Louvière74.0%1.35
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw47.0%2.13
- Draw no bet Anderlecht71.6%1.40
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière28.4%3.53
Goals
- Over 0.591.7%1.09
- Over 1.573.2%1.37
- Over 2.547.2%2.12
- Over 3.525.6%3.91
- Over 4.511.7%8.52
- Under 1.526.8%3.73
- Under 2.552.8%1.89
- Under 3.574.4%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes49.4%2.02
- No50.6%1.98
- Yes and over 2.537.1%2.70
- Anderlecht win and yes22.1%4.53
- Draw and yes17.6%5.67
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes9.7%10.31
Team goals
- Anderlecht over 0.580.4%1.24
- Anderlecht over 1.548.4%2.07
- Anderlecht over 2.522.4%4.46
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.560.7%1.65
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.524.0%4.16
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.56.9%14.56
- Anderlecht clean sheet39.3%2.55
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet19.6%5.10
- Anderlecht win to nil30.9%3.23
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil11.3%8.85
Handicap
- Anderlecht −1.528.8%3.47
- Anderlecht −2.512.3%8.13
- RAAL La Louvière +1.571.2%1.40
- RAAL La Louvière +2.587.7%1.14
- RAAL La Louvière −1.57.3%13.61
- Anderlecht +1.592.7%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored198
Favourite won42.9%
Avg chance given to result37.1%
1X2 Brier0.637
Over 2.5 called right51.0%
BTTS called right50.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.0% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 92 | 44.8% | 35.9% |
| 50–60% | 45 | 54.6% | 51.1% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.5% | 73.7% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 160 of 198 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6449 | 0.6338 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.9% | 37.8% |
| Favourite won | 41.9% | 42.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 160 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Antwerp 0–2 KVC Westerlo61·22·17
- ✓Cercle Brugge 1–2 Club Brugge KV18·22·60
- ✗Standard Liege 1–1 Union St. Gilloise21·27·52
- ✗Charleroi 2–3 Gent44·27·30
- ✓OH Leuven 3–2 Dender48·26·26
- ✗KV Mechelen 2–3 Genk38·26·35
- ✗KV Mechelen 2–0 Antwerp36·26·37
- ✓Club Brugge KV 3–0 Standard Liege69·19·12
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–1 RAAL La Louvière65·22·12
- ✓Genk 2–0 Anderlecht44·26·30
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 198 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.