Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 27). Anderlecht had 8.7 days of rest, Standard Liege 7.8 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days8.7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Anderlecht57%
Draw24%
Standard Liege19%
Anderlecht56%
Draw24%
Standard Liege20%
Anderlecht57%
Draw24%
Standard Liege19%
Anderlecht49%
Draw26%
Standard Liege25%
Anderlecht56%
Draw24%
Standard Liege20%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 30
Team strength
Anderlecht
Standard Liege
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
37
AttackIn forecast
29
52
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtStandard Liege
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
78%
Scored inContext
67%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
14.89
ShotsContext
9.78
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
35%
On target shareContext
36%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
61%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.22
Shots allowedContext
14.78
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
2.89
BlocksContext
4.67
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
64%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
455
PassesContext
361
372
Accurate passesContext
285
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.67
FoulsContext
10.00
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.78
ShotsContext
10.20
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
58%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.63
12.00
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.67
BlocksContext
4.40
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
68%
Save rateContext
77%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
480
PassesContext
388
402
Accurate passesContext
311
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.44
FoulsContext
9.20
9.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km49 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel89 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Sep | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 49 km | 137 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.2 | 15.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
21C. Huerta
20L. Vázquez
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
20I. Karamoko
25I. Hautekiet
18H. Lawrence
94C. Nielsen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
17R. Saïd
10D. Eckert Ayensa
11A. Abid
9T. Henry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
Standard Liege · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Dender | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 5–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Anderlecht wins1 draws1 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–2Standard Liege
- 22 Oct 2023Standard Liege3–2Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.33 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 22% | 44% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Anderlecht | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.33 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 22% | 44% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 9.67 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.78 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.11 | 4.67 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Anderlecht | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.70 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.20 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.17league 3.92
Red cards0.27league 0.21
Cards 5+37%league 43%
Fouls22.0league 22.7
Penalties0.17league 0.32
Home wins47%league 39%
Anderlecht4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W18 Feb 24H · St. Truiden4–11
- D21 Jan 24A · OH Leuven1–12
- D3 Sep 23A · Genk1–16
- L28 Jul 23A · Union St. Gilloise0–23
Standard Liege2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L16 Aug 25A · Union St. Gilloise0–32
- L31 Jan 24H · Antwerp0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht9 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Standard Liege9 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
